The Islamic Republic of Iran is going through a trying moment. Tehran is fully aware that dictatorships can be overthrown by chaos and humiliation. Shia Iran’s influence over Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and other regions is also in jeopardy. Stated differently, Iran’s hand has been tied by the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.
It must act to maintain the stability of the government, but it is ill-equipped to deal with Israel directly and the probable simultaneous engagement of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Iran also has an immediate problem in determining the degree of this security breach and adjusting its approach to stop further weakening of its security apparatus.
After Haniyeh’s murder, Iran will probably arm its proxies in