The extraordinary turn of events in Bangladesh, which resulted in Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation on August 5, 2024, represents yet another tectonic upheaval in the country’s history. It will undoubtedly have a substantial impact on its internal dynamics as well as the region’s strategic landscape.
Hasina won a fourth consecutive term in January of this year with her party, the Awami League, securing a solid majority, despite opposition party boycotts and charges of irregularities in the elections. Regardless, the country was regarded to be on a stable path.
The current problem was caused by the restoration of the quota system, which was removed in 2018. According to a high court decision issued in June of this year, 30% of government positions would be reserved for the descendants of those who participated in the 1971 War of Independence. The students began protesting against the quota ruling, calling it unfair. The agitation became violent following a government crackdown and attacks by ruling-party-affiliated organizations. Almost 200 people were killed during the month-long agitation.
The Supreme Court eventually reconsidered the judgment, and reservations were reduced to 5%. The crisis seemed to have been brought under control.
Surprisingly, the protests flared up again a few days later, on July 29, demanding the PM’s removal. These grew into a national movement, exposing Sheikh Hasina’s dictatorial administration, massive corruption, and nepotism while overshadowing economic achievements. The increased violence took around 100 more lives. The level of disruption indicated that the student movement had been hijacked by extremist groups and members of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party.
General Waker Uz Zaman, the newly appointed Chief of Army Staff (COAS), appears to have raised concern about the security forces’ failure to handle the situation, prompting Hasina’s abrupt departure.
Bangladesh has a turbulent history of coups and political changes. It began with the killing of Prime Minister Sheikh Mujib on August 15, 1975, after which General Ziaur Rehman took charge. He was slain in a coup in 1981, and General Ershad took over, remaining in power for a decade before being deposed in 1990. Bangladesh’s democracy has been restored. Khalida Zia (wife of General Ziaur Rehman), who served as Prime Minister twice (1991-1996 and 2001-2006), and Sheikh Hasina, who reigned for 20 years (1996-2001 and 2009-2024), held power alternately.
General Zaman declared an army coup and the formation of an interim government shortly after Sheikh Hasina left to India. Khalida Zia, who had been held under house arrest, was released. Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and fierce critic of Hasina residing in Paris, was appointed to lead the interim administration. On August 8, Bangladesh’s President, Mohammed Shahabuddin, swore him in as Chief Advisor. The temporary administration consists of 17 members, with no representation from the Awami League.
The portfolio allocation reflects the interim government’s profile. Yunus has taken control of 27 ministries, including defense, education, and energy. Mohammad Touhid Hossain, a career diplomat, will head the foreign ministry. Abul Hassan Ali will be in charge of financial management and planning. AFM Khalid Hossain, former vice president of the fundamentalist Hefazat-e-Islam, has been appointed minister of religious affairs. Asif Nazrul, the legal professor who trained student coordinators throughout the protests, will lead the law ministry. Brigadier General Sakhawat Hussain (retd), a former election commissioner, has been posted to the home ministry. The two student activists who led the protests have been designated as advisors.
There has been no decision on the interim government’s duration or the timing of elections. Given that the interim administration is monitored by the military, there is some doubt regarding its ability to shape the reform agenda.
The most pressing issue for Yunus is to restore calm in the conflict-torn country, which has seen at least 455 people killed in recent weeks. His next responsibility is to provide the groundwork for new elections to allow the restoration of democracy. Yunus added, after being sworn in and appealed for unity, “Today is a beautiful day for us. Bangladesh has declared a new triumph day. It has achieved second independence.
Protesters continue to have a free run, despite Yunus’ promise to leave if violence does not cease. Following the students’ ultimatum, Obaidul Hassan resigned as Chief Justice, along with five other justices, and Refaat Ahmed was sworn in as his replacement. The Army’s inaction remains a surprise, given that it is the most powerful force in the country and is widely feared by the general populace.
Bangladesh’s geopolitical landscape is about to change dramatically. Pakistan will undoubtedly achieve significant gains by capitalizing on its relations with the Jamaat. China, with its considerable involvement in Bangladesh, has welcomed the installation of an interim administration. Beijing is well-positioned to pursue its strategic objectives in the region. The United States, which previously had strained relations with Hasina, has also welcomed the move. The inevitable conflict between Washington and Beijing will undoubtedly trap Dhaka.
India has always stood behind the people of Bangladesh and hopes for a speedy return to normalcy. Given the great bilateral connections that existed under Hasina’s reign, current changes pose significant geopolitical challenges for India. The future of military collaboration, as well as strategic and defense connections, is a source of deep anxiety. Several recently launched infrastructure projects may be hindered.
The likelihood of a refugee flood is high, as evidenced by the Bangladesh ‘Hindu Buddhist Christian Oikya Parishad’ report of 205 incidences of persecution against its people since August 5. Hasina’s presence in India is likely to be an issue for the new government. India must raise international awareness of the atrocities done against minorities in Bangladesh.
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To safeguard its national interests, Delhi will need to navigate turbulent waters with savvy diplomacy and realistic solutions. Today, Bangladesh is at a crossroads, poised to alter course.
The way the chessboard is being prepared suggests that power would shift hands in the upcoming elections, with the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami the primary competitors, and the Army playing a critical role. The extent to which students’ ambitions for true democracy are realized remains to be seen. The envisioned’second independence’ will come at a cost, as mobocracy would inevitably harm the nation’s economy.
