Israel’s Gaza offensive against Hamas may change West Asia

October 7, 2023, is probably the darkest day in the 75-year history of the modern state of Israel. Hamas’s unparalleled belligerence dispelled the illusion of its flawless intelligence network and potent disincentive. A terrorist group humiliated a nation that has endured existential crises since its founding on May 14, 1948, and that has successfully thwarted Arab attempts to erase it from the face of the earth. What an unpleasant shock this was.

On Yom Kippur, October 6, 1973, a half-century ago, Egypt and Syria startled Israel by initiating coordinated offensives across the Suez Canal and the Golan Heights, respectively. It retaliated with incredible tenacity, tipping the scales in just over two weeks. This time, Israel finds itself compelled to engage in a very different and likely protracted fight by a “Non-State Actor” (NSA).

The timing, scope, and approach of Hamas’ October 7, 2023, “Al Aqsa Flood” against Israel demonstrated that it was a meticulously planned operation. The political and military goals were to resurrect the Palestine issue, refute the myth of the Israeli Defence Forces’ (IDF) invincibility, win over the Muslim world, and obstruct the process of Arab nations renouncing their support for Israel, particularly in the wake of the 2020 Abraham Accords.

In addition to kidnapping over 220 hostages, the Hamas attack was characterised by a powerful rocket bombardment and a multi-mode assault that resulted in approximately 1,400 fatalities, many of whom were security forces members. The second stage of the plan calls for conducting unconventional warfare in heavily populated regions by enticing the IDF to invade Gaza on foot, which would be extremely expensive.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel responded quickly, proclaiming a state of war. “Operation Iron Sword” was initiated to encircle Gaza and promptly rectify the unfavourable circumstances, in addition to instituting a maritime embargo. Additionally, in order to prepare the battlefield for operations in Gaza, including hostage rescue attempts, 300,000 reserves were called into action and special forces, known as “Sayeret Matkal” commandos, were introduced into the conflict zone.

The IDF intended to carry out the Gaza offensive in three stages in order to neutralise Hamas. The first phase, which is presently in progress, aims to demolish Hamas’s infrastructure in order to reduce its capacity for combat. Phase two is anticipated to be a protracted process that involves removing pockets of opposition for Hamas. Israel is expected to completely leave Gaza in the third phase, following the establishment of new security and administration structures. The Israeli authorities ordered Gazans to move from the north to the south, where more than a million people walked over Wadi Gaza, in order to prevent civilian casualties. As expected, Hamas is exchanging vital relief supplies for the release of hostages.

Given that Hamas has fortified the region with an intricate network of subterranean tunnels known as the “Metro System,” the fight of Gaza is certain to be brutal. Hamas wants to use civilians as human shields and push Israeli forces to fight in close quarters. With about twenty thousand fighters, Hamas is able to wage a protracted “guerilla war.”

Israel’s primary goal is to eliminate the Hamas leadership and its ability to fight by using laser guns, GBU-28 bunker-bursting bombs, and extremely advanced precision-guided munitions. Almost three times as many people have reportedly been injured in Gaza as there have been killed in the war, which is currently in its third week. The degree of Israeli shelling of Gaza has increased to an extent never seen in recent times.

The fight between Israel and Hamas is progressively becoming into a multifront warfare. The fiercest firefights between Hezbollah and the IDF since the 2006 war show how eager the latter is to include Lebanon in the conflict. The Houthis, who support Iran, are also active. They have been firing drones and missiles towards Israel from Yemen; last week, an American navy destroyer intercepted some of their launches. US military outposts in Syria and Iraq, where it keeps 2,500 and 900 troops, respectively, have recently been targeted by drone attacks. The “Axis of Resistance,” which consists of Iran-backed militias in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon, is prepared to attack Israel from several angles should it invade Gaza, according to the Deputy Commander of the “Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.”

There are broader implications to the current war between Israel and Hamas because the world community is sharply divided on the matter. The US and the West support Israel and vehemently denounce the heinous attack carried out by Hamas. On October 18, 2023, President Joe Biden reaffirmed America’s unwavering allegiance while in Tel Aviv. He did, however, advise Prime Minister Netanyahu to use caution and postpone the ground offensive until the United States has made its asset deployment. Eleven US warships are currently in the Mediterranean, and another 15,000 personnel are prepared for deployment, with 2,000 marines already inside Israel.

There are broader implications to the current war between Israel and Hamas because the world community is sharply divided on the matter. The US and the West support Israel and vehemently denounce the heinous attack carried out by Hamas. On October 18, 2023, President Joe Biden reaffirmed America’s unwavering allegiance while in Tel Aviv. He did, however, advise Prime Minister Netanyahu to use caution and postpone the ground offensive until the United States has made its asset deployment. Eleven US warships are currently in the Mediterranean, and another 15,000 personnel are prepared for deployment, with 2,000 marines already inside Israel.

China and Russia, on the other hand, are fierce backers of Palestine and Hamas. Israeli operations have been deemed by President Xi Jinping to go way beyond the bounds of self-defense. The cease-fire between Russia and Israel seems to be almost complete. Moscow and Beijing benefit from the battle in West Asia because it diverts Washington’s attention from the Western Pacific and Ukraine. India has adopted a nuanced stance, endorsing both Palestine and a two-nation solution while simultaneously denouncing the murderous activities of Hamas. India has a lot riding on the stability of the region. Its profound strategic interests include energy security, a sizable expat community, membership in the I2U2 (Israel, India, UAE, USA) grouping, and the proposed IMEEC (India, West Asia, Europe Corridor).

Muslim unity in West Asia is demonstrated by the Islamic world’s unwavering support for Hamas. Major Arab countries have demanded a rapid end to hostilities, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, while Qatar has backed Hamas. Following the bombing of the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza, which was blamed on Israel, a crucial meeting between President Biden and the leaders of Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority was called off. But Biden gave Israel the clean pass, putting the other side at fault for the horrific deed.

Following the Israel-Hamas conflict, the US’s plan to withdraw from West Asia is at a standstill. Intense rivalry amongst powers in the region is inevitable as they strive for a strategic equilibrium. The geopolitical architecture of West Asia is about to undergo a radical transformation.