Recent events in West Asia have taken the region dangerously close to full-scale conflict, especially in light of Iran’s Tuesday launch of roughly 200 missiles that were aimed at different locations throughout Israel. Tehran had promised that the Israeli hit, which killed Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah, “would not go unanswered,” so the Iranian attack against Israel was not at all surprising.
Iran has threatened to respond to any reprisal by Israel or its allies with “vast destruction,” and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged that the Iranians will pay for missile strikes on his country. India has good cause for great concern regarding the way this neighboring region is developing and the potential short- and long-term repercussions.
According to Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Tehran launched the missile strike as a form of “self-defence” and it was limited to the military and security installations that were utilized to launch attacks on Lebanon and Gaza. He clarified that Iran carried out the strike “to give space for a ceasefire in Gaza” following nearly two months of extreme restraint. Araghchi also implied that Iran does not want to drag out the war by saying that Iran’s action had “concluded” unless Israel “decides to invite further retaliation.”
Israeli defense systems quickly activated to intercept the approaching threat as the missiles tore across the sky. Declaring, “the attack was thwarted, thanks to Israel’s air defence system, the most advanced in the world,” Netanyahu denied that Iran’s strike on Israel had caused any damage and thanked the US for its assistance. Even while many missiles were successfully intercepted, Israeli officials acknowledged that the center and southern regions were affected.
Israel’s fight against Iran has the unwavering support of the US, France, and the UK. The Biden administration publicly endorsed Israel without reservation in the wake of Iran’s missile assault. The US military was ordered by President Biden to support Israel in defending itself against Iranian strikes and to intercept missiles aimed at the nation, according to confirmation from the White House. As part of Israel’s defense, two US destroyers, the USS Cole and USS Bulkeley, positioned in the Eastern Mediterranean, have deployed a dozen interceptors to target incoming Iranian ballistic missiles, according to Pentagon press secretary Major General Patrick S. Ryder.
A lot of people had thought that the US would try to diffuse the tension. Nonetheless, it is improbable that the US will utilize its clout over Israel to stop arming Israel or defuse regional tensions.
Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, denounced Iran for its “new attacks against Israel” “in the strongest possible terms.” Macron declared that France is “dedicated to Israel’s security” and that in order to “counter the Iranian threat,” French military forces have been dispatched to West Asia.
Likewise, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom declared that his nation “stands with Israel” and recognizes its right to self-defense. John Healey, the secretary of defense, continued, saying that without going into greater detail, British soldiers had “this evening played their part in attempts to prevent further escalation.” According to the BBC, UK fighter jets shot down Iranian missiles, much as they had done during an earlier Iranian strike on Israel in April.
Some analysts worry that as the confrontation intensifies, there is a greater chance of Israeli attacks against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, and that Israel may even set the stage for such assaults. Israeli President Isaac Herzog declared that Israeli forces will “remove any threats that are existential to the state of Israel” and referred to Iran as a “empire of evil.” The concern is that the Israeli government would take advantage of the Iranian missile assaults to set up a scenario in which it could attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in the future.
Iran, on the other hand, is unwilling to incite a more widespread counterattack despite its efforts to project might. It’s unclear what it would do if pushed over the edge. It is thought that Iran does not have nuclear weapons, in contrast to Israel. But worries about it possibly approaching the capacity to produce them continue.
According to a January 8, 2024 research by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, Iran could generate enough material for its first nuclear weapon in about a week, and within a month, it might have enough weapons-grade uranium for six warheads. What has happened since January is still up for debate and conjecture.
India may be greatly impacted by the Israel-Iran war getting worse. Close relations exist between Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis; Houthi attacks on ships have already disrupted trade in the Red Sea. India’s trade with the US, Europe, and West Africa is mostly dependent on this route, which uses the Suez Canal to connect the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. International businesses could not be able to access the Red Sea route for a lot longer than expected. This will affect our imports and exports by maintaining freight rates at an uncomfortably high level.
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The intensifying violence may potentially pose a threat to the development of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). The IMEC proposal, which was unveiled at the G20 summit in New Delhi last year, consists of a road, rail, and sea corridor that connects India to Europe via the Gulf, Israel, and Jordan. The idea was to build a route that could be 40% faster and lessen reliance on the Suez Canal. Additionally, it was perceived as a calculated reaction to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The emergence of conflict in West Asia, however, may present challenges to the growth of this trade route.
Given its robust macroeconomic foundations, analysts predict that the growing West Asian conflict won’t have a major short-term effect on the Indian economy. In the week ending September 20, India’s foreign exchange reserves increased to $692 billion, offering protection against sudden shocks. But if the conflict drags on, the economy might have difficulties. Supply disruptions would probably drive up oil prices, which would hurt India’s exports and foreign investments.
In May 2024, India signed a 10-year contract with Iran to develop and operate the Chabahar Port. Under the agreement, India will invest around $120 million in developing the port, with an additional $250 million in financing, bringing the total value of the contract to $370 million. However, Iran’s conflict with Israel will inevitably impede India’s efforts to develop the Chabahar Port.
It has been repeatedly declared by Prime Minister Modi that we are not living in a time of war. India will probably call on Iran and Israel to put a halt to their hostilities and engage in communication and diplomacy. But given the current situation, it seems unlikely that India’s requests will be answered. The P5 members’ veto power continues to impede the UN Security Council’s capacity to take significant action, even though it is the council’s duty to put an end to this hazardous conflict and bring about peace.
The UNSC’s makeup has not changed to reflect the evolving global landscape, and India might be left powerless as the crisis in West Asia worsens and causes immense misery and devastation.
