Fears of an all-out war between Israel and Iran have once again returned to the forefront of public discourse, with Hamas and Hezbollah at the epicenter of a political thunderstorm.
This time, the trigger was the blatant killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. The death of a prominent Hamas leader in the capital of Iran will undoubtedly have catastrophic effects for India apart from, of course, West Asia.
After an explosion rocked his hotel in Tehran, where he was attending the swearing-in ceremony of Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian, Ismail Haniyeh was pronounced dead. At the same event, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari was a guest as well.
The fact that such a horrific attack avoided Iran’s intelligence services and defense systems in the nation’s capital, which is a well-armed, nuclear-capable state with a robust military, is highlighted by numerous reports that point to a convoluted operation involving smuggled explosives that were planted at the guesthouse months ago.
Regardless of one’s perspective, the strike on Haniyeh has inflicted a severe blow to Hamas in the nearly ten-month-long conflict, exposed the fundamental failure of Iran’s intelligence and security services, and deeply embarrassed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of being involved in the strike, but Israel has remained silent and has warned to take revenge. Iran cannot allow this to continue, and as a result, the Middle East is once more on the verge of a major war.
The Middle East puzzle
As the public face of Hamas in international diplomacy, Haniyeh contributed to the expansion of contacts with foreign diplomats and even indirectly to peace negotiations. Having previously served as the Palestinian PM, he was the head of the terrorist group’s political office and is acknowledged as one of the pioneers of Hamas’s political involvement. Since the attacks on Israel on October 7, his passing is the worst setback for Hamas.
The decades-long shadow war between Israel and Iran ended on April 13, when Iran launched its biggest drone and missile attack in retribution for an Israeli raid on its embassy in Syria that claimed the lives of multiple Iranian military commanders. Although there had been a decrease in tensions at the time, the attack on Tehran is expected to be viewed as a significant step up that Iran must react to, which would put pressure on reformist president Pezeshkian. Anticipating a counterattack, Israel has gathered its armed troops and issued a warning to “exact a heavy price” for any kind of action.
In addition, the attack has thrown off the current ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas to temporarily end the Gaza War, which has claimed the lives of almost 40,000 Palestinians. This represents a setback for US President Joe Biden’s audacious diplomatic risk and efforts to achieve a two-state solution. The US has declared a significant military buildup in the area and pledged to protect Israel from Iranian assault. As the US prepares for elections in November, the problem continues to be extremely concerning.
Also Read: How Israel sneaked bomb into Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh room
Middle East tightrope for India after Hamas chief killing
Given that New Delhi has tight ties with both Iran and Israel, the latest developments in the Middle East are a difficult subject about which India has said little. But there would be fallout for India as well as the volatile Middle East from the fight. The safety of the approximately 9 million Indians residing in the region—18,000 in Israel and 4,000 in Iran—is India’s top priority right now.
Ties between India and Israel: India and Israel have a tight connection presently, despite decades of India’s support for Palestinian statehood, as evidenced by the camaraderie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In 2022–2023, the two nations’ bilateral commerce increased to almost $10.7 billion. As it looks outside of Russia for alternative supplies for its defense needs, India is also considering Israel.
Diplomatic nuances between India and Iran: India and Tehran have had cordial relations for many years, with an emphasis on trade, technology, and connectivity. India is one of Iran’s top five allies, and the two countries are working closely together to build the Chabahar Port into a regional hub for the transportation of products, both commercial and humanitarian. India and Iran recently inked a 10-year deal for India to take control of the Shahid Beheshti Port.
Way ahead for India: India has had to carefully control its language as it is beginning to take the lead on the international scene given the developing crisis between Iran and Israel. India was the first country to denounce the “terrorist” assaults on October 7 against Israel, although it held back from labelling Hamas as a terrorist group.India has labeled the attacks on Israel by Hamas as “terrorism” in a number of multilateral gatherings; nevertheless, it has also vehemently demanded a truce in Gaza and supported a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem, which is opposed by Israeli authorities.
