A negotiated conclusion to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine crisis is becoming more and more of an Asian priority. China and India are also aiming to play a more mediating role, with speculations in the media suggesting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may visit Kyiv in August.
If confirmed, Modi’s visit would occur just a few weeks after the Western world strongly criticized him for traveling to Russia in early July, a decision that Washington regarded as “concernful” and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy referred to as “a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts.”
However, the effort would also coincide with steps taken by the United States and Europe to step up arms sales to Kyiv. This is because the West wants to either compel Moscow to remove its soldiers from all of Ukrainian land or, at the very least, give Kyiv the leverage it needs to negotiate a peace agreement.
That being said, others claim that, at least in the short run, attaining such results has grown more challenging as Russian forces continue to achieve small victories on the field. Due of this, China and India, who both have strong commercial relations with the West and Russia, have started to speak out more in favor of a diplomatic settlement.
Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told reporters in Tokyo on Monday, “Our feeling today is that more needs to be done and that we should not resign ourselves to the continuation of the current state of conflict.”
He also emphasized that India will use its relations with both sides to become “more active” in resolving the conflict.
Insisting that the war, which is already in its third year, will not be ended militarily, Jaishankar said, “it’s important for everybody to do whatever they can to see if, in some way, something improves and a move out of the battlefield and into the conference table can take place.”
A few weeks prior, Modi sent a similar message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, asserting that in the face of bombs, guns, and bullets, peace negotiations and solutions “do not succeed.”
Modi, who was just elected to a third term as prime leader of India, warned Putin that “we will have to follow the path to peace only through talks.”
While Jaishankar refuted allegations that the South Asian nation was seeking to play “a responsible role globally,” speculation about the travel to Ukraine gained momentum on Tuesday following remarks made by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.
In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a senior U.S. official stated, “We’re likely to hear news of India engaging more directly in Ukraine.”
New Delhi has come under fire for its decision to drastically increase Russian oil imports since the start of the war and for refusing to publicly criticize Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine. These actions stand in stark contrast to Western efforts to both isolate and weaken Russia internationally and economically.
The purported travel has not yet been verified by the Indian authorities. However, some claim that Modi’s recent visit to Moscow has drawn criticism, which may have an impact on his ambitions.
Defense expert Rahul Bedi, headquartered in New Delhi, stated, “Modi has not taken this (criticism) well and is trying to make amends by planning a visit to Ukraine, dates for which have not yet been confirmed.”
Washington has urged New Delhi to state unequivocally that any settlement of the conflict “needs to be one that respects the U.N. charter” in addition to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
He went on to say that one should “primarily see a Modi visit to Kyiv in the context of geopolitical maneuvering.”
If the trip happens, Modi is expected to reaffirm his commitment to diplomatic means of ending the conflict, according to Maslow.
However, it is still unclear what specific peace efforts might result from taking a more active part in international conflict resolution, even if this would undoubtedly assist elevate his foreign policy profile beyond simple rhetoric.
Some, like C. Raja Mohan, a visiting research professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, suggested that a Modi visit to Kyiv may assist in reshaping India’s strategy for European security, which has slipped from New Delhi’s strategic considerations in recent years.
Depending on the outcome of the US presidential election in November, a chance for a negotiated settlement may present itself sooner than anticipated.
The Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris, is anticipated to adopt a similar platform to that of President Joe Biden, but her opponent, the former president Donald Trump, a Republican, has made it clear that if elected, he will put an end to the conflict in a single day.
Similar calculations might be made by China, which has come under fire from the West for giving Russia dual-use goods with both military and civilian uses. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, the first senior official from Ukraine since the war started, was hosted by China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, last week.
Although the circumstances and timing were “not yet ripe” for peace talks, both Russia and Ukraine “have sent signals of willingness to negotiate to varying degrees,” according to a statement from China’s Foreign Ministry quoting Wang.
A few days later, Beijing sent its special envoy for Eurasian matters to Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia with the goal of “creating conditions for the resumption of peace talks,” continuing its diplomatic effort.
Also Read: The geopolitical implications of PM Modi visit to Ukraine
It is unclear if New Delhi’s ambitions for greater interaction with Kiev have involved Washington, which sees India as a key ally in its efforts to challenge China.
It would be challenging for the present U.S. government to make any significant policy or strategy adjustments just before the election, according to Chong, even though the Democrats would undoubtedly applaud any new efforts they could use during the campaign as accomplishments in foreign policy.
In agreement, Bedi stated that the Biden administration is “unlikely to be overtly responsive to any peace overtures coming from China or India.” The Biden administration has long pursued its own diplomatic, security, and political agenda with regard to Ukraine.
