Bihar Assembly Election Result 2025: It is important to consider the following questions when a new NDA government takes office in Patna: What does the outcome in Bihar tell us about the state and what does it indicate for politics outside of it?
Forย Bihar,ย thisย representsย theย lastย breakย fromย theย yearย 1990,ย fromย theย politicalย endeavorย ofย socialย justiceย toย fracturedย casteย identitiesย andย signsย ofย majoritarianย claims. Itย representsย aย significantย expansionย ofย theย BJP’sย hegemonyย outsideย ofย Bihar. Itย alsoย meansย thatย Narendraย Modiย wouldย haveย aย strongerย holdย onย hisย partyย andย theย nation.
One of the states that halted the INDIA bloc’s advance in 2024 was Bihar, which has since further reduced the likelihood of an anti-BJP alliance. The outcome in Bihar is structurally similar to what happened in Maharashtra a year ago; it is characterized by a clean sweep, a slight increase in vote share, a significant increase in seats, a spectacular comeback of regional partners, and, most importantly, making those partners relatively obsolete. Like Chirag Paswan’s LJP, the JD(U) may have made significant gains, but it is clear who is in charge and will now lead the NDA in Bihar.
Ever since the BJP won the 2014 elections, Bihar had posed a hurdle in its way. The party has been polling just around 20 per cent votes there โmore in 2015. It met only lukewarm success over the past 10 years. This is no longer the case. So, while the only competition in this election was (and post-election, will be) between the JD(U) and BJP, the future will see the unfolding irrelevance of the JD(U). It will also be a phase of deep control of the social sphere by the BJP. Therefore, it is redundant to speculate on how long it will take for the BJP to rule Bihar on its own; it will anyway drive Bihar on its own terms from here.
The BJP has to rely on the north and the west to gain power in 2014. In addition to strengthening its position in Assam, it has made significant progress in Karnataka and Telangana in the south, gained Odisha in the east, and made a concerted effort to penetrate Tamil Nadu over the last ten years.
The results of the Bihar poll could be an indication of the party’s broader and more comprehensive dominance, as elections to West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are due in six months. Bihar has opened the floodgates, at least for the eastern zone. Because of this, it is necessary to look beyond the state-specific aspects of the Nitish factor and the weariness of the social justice politics that Lalu Prasad initially advocated.
Similar to Bihar, the Congress is not a significant factor in West Bengal or Tamil Nadu, therefore the regional player will bear the full weight of opposing the BJP. Despite the incumbency factor set against the JD(U)-BJP, the RJD failed in Bihar. In addition to the influence of a hostile government at the federal level, the regional power-holder will have to contend with anti-incumbency in both states that will have elections. Similar to Odisha, Bihar has demonstrated that the BJP can prevail even in elections involving state-level forces.
Also Read: Bihar Elections 2025: The factors that gave the NDA a landslide win
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The last ten years have demonstrated that the two key components of the BJP and Modi’s supremacy were total control over the government apparatus and an effort to create a de facto Hindu Rashtra. The characteristics of the BJP project throughout the previous ten years have not changed since June 2024.
The BJP is more likely to grow irritated with NDA allies now if it did not give in on these two issues over the last 18 months. It depends on the specifics whether the BJP intends to remove them by defections, new elections, or just by ignoring them. State parties will probably have very little room to maneuver, even if they are close to the BJP.
