Bihar Elections 2025: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has secured a landslide victory by securing 202 seats in the Bihar Elections 2025. This rather surprisingly one-sided verdict saw NDA go close to its historic 2010 tally of 206 seats.
The magnitude of the outcome of the Bihar Elections 2025 is particularly surprising. It was generally accepted in the lead-up to the election that Nitish Kumar was dealing with the worst anti-incumbency sentiment in his twenty years in office. Many observers believed that the opposition would lose the election.
But with a multifaceted approach that included expanding the benefit pool and boosting cash incentives—most notably by incorporating a very small group of 16 lakh registered construction workers—the NDA changed the dynamics.
Nitish has risen like the Phoenix
Cash incentives for women under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana seem to be the most important component, as in past elections. Ten thousand rupees were given to women connected to the vast Jeevika Didi network so they may launch modest enterprises. Additionally, the government has pledged to assess the program in the upcoming months, suggesting that the next payment may reach two lakh rupees if it is determined to be scalable.
There are 1.4 crore Jeevika Didis in Bihar. The program serves as a major source of financial empowerment for women from economically and socially disadvantaged regions. Additionally, NDA cadres stay in touch with these women on a regular basis, supporting them during the process and eventually helping them mobilize on election day.
Even ladies who have not yet received their installments say they are confident that the money would eventually reach their accounts as long as Nitish Kumar is in office. This view is remarkably consistent, and it makes sense to assume that about 90% of Jeevika Didis support the NDA.
The manner Nitish Kumar restored his public image in the middle of the campaign was another element supporting his appeal. The story about his deteriorating health and unfitness for another term was refuted by his enthusiastic rallies. Despite the age difference, his excitement frequently exceeded Tejashwi Yadav’s. Voters responded favorably to a widely shared video in which Kumar claimed he had never pursued personal gain in his life.
The Janata Dal (United) cadre were well-positioned by the time full-scale campaigning resumed following the Chhath festival. Ensuring voter attendance at the booths during the Bihar Elections 2025 and combating local misinformation were their main responsibilities.
BJP overcomes internal problems
However, the BJP faced a number of internal difficulties ahead of the Bihar Elections 2025. Prashant Kishor’s persistent attacks on high-ranking officials, such as state president Dilip Jaiswal and Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, put pressure on the party. Chaudhary’s position as the representative of the Kushwaha community made it impossible for him to distance himself from him, and he was ultimately told to run from Tarapur, a seat he had not initially favored.
The allocation of tickets led to more issues. Voters from upper castes showed discernible changes in favor of Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor. Amit Shah stepped in to make sure that upper-caste candidates received about half of the BJP’s tickets.
Smaller potential vote-cutters who were unhappy with the distribution procedure and threatened to rebel constituted another problem. To appease block-level leaders and maintain the BJP’s support base, Shah personally spoke with them. For instance, he was able to persuade four prospective candidates in Tarapur not to run against Samrat Chaudhary.
After that, Chaudhary was instrumental in strengthening Kushwaha support for the NDA in the Magadh–Shahabad area, where the alliance is expected to make substantial progress after over ten years.
Chirag Paswan’s seat demands, which Jitan Ram Manjhi opposed, also caused issues for the BJP. Following several rounds of talks, Nityanand Rai made an unsuccessful attempt at mediation. After a deal was struck, Paswan was able to secure 29 seats, 10 of which were allegedly supplied by the BJP.
Educating Gen Z voters about the facts of the Jungle Raj era and its effects on Bihar presented another difficulty. Before the local music industry abruptly intervened and produced songs and videos portraying the comeback of criminal elements if Tejashwi Yadav were to come to power, early attempts failed.
These songs gained momentum as the BJP promoted them on many platforms. Prime Minister Modi reaffirmed the message later in the campaign by relating particular instances from that time.
M-Y combination boosts NDA
The NDA faced a demographic obstacle even after resolving all of these issues. Together, Muslims and Yadavs, the traditional M-Y, make up around one-third of the electorate. They also have a very high voting percentage. It was anticipated that both communities would fully back Tejashwi Yadav, and this proved to be the case.
More than 90% of Yadavs and 79% of Muslims supported Tejashwi Yadav in the Axis My India exit poll. Both of these numbers exceed the loyalty quotients that the NDA’s conventional vote banks typically obtain.
The NDA’s version of M-Y was successful. Mahila (women) and Youth make up the NDA’s M-Y. When Chirag Paswan discussed the reasoning for his party’s ticket allocation during the Lok Sabha elections, he was the first to describe this formula.
The majority of Nitish Kumar’s beneficiaries are women. His plans since becoming office have mostly aimed to empower women. Through chances for safety and employment, he provided representation and dignity to women over the age of eighteen. By requiring free clothing, school supplies, bicycles, and safe roads, he educated young ladies.
Kumar gave these educated ladies a 35% reservation when they grew up. Those who were not hired by the government are now prepared to launch their own companies with official assistance. It is not surprising that four lakh more women visited the booth than men, even though they were 46 lakh fewer in total. The ratio of women to males was seen to be 3:1 at numerous booths.
However, compared to women of all ages, fewer young people backed the NDA. Even so, despite suffering lathi charges and paper leaks, it cannot be claimed that the youth completely desired to remove Nitish Kumar. Making ensuring young people, particularly men, had a complete picture before selecting an alternative greatly decreased their anti-incumbency sentiment.
In the end, a sizable portion of the young people who merely wanted Nitish Kumar removed from office pressed Jan Suraaj’s symbol instead of the Mahagathbandhan’s. In this way, the NDA benefited from the division of young male voters who opposed it, while it worked harder to secure female voters in the same age range.
