The United States enters the Paris Olympics 2024 as the heavy favorite to capture the most medals this week. China has a genuine possibility to surpass its historical rivals in the number of gold medals won, but it is unlikely that they will surpass the USA in total medal count.
In addition to showcasing exceptional individual athletes whose success is determined by the number of medals they win, the Olympics also serve as a proxy for political sway and patriotism. It is predicted that the US will take home 112 medals in total, including 39 gold, 32 silver, and 41 bronze. China is predicted to win 86 medals in total, consisting of 34 gold, 27 silver, and 25 bronze.
Nielsen’s Gracenote Sports, which provides statistical analysis and tools to leagues worldwide, makes the forecast.
At the pandemic-affected Tokyo Olympics in 2021, the United States and China placed first and second in both divisions. There is no medal standings maintained by the International Olympic Committee (IOC). A nation’s gold medal total is officially rated according to the number of medals it has earned. In the meanwhile, Gracenote has determined its rankings by total medals won.
The United States of America would lead the medal count at the Summer Games for the seventh time in a row if they were to top the standings. The previous time they lost out on first place was in the 1992 Summer Olympics in Barcelona, where a team called Unified Team, made up of athletes from the former Soviet Union, took home four more medals.
The last time the United States did not finish first in the gold medal standings at the Summer Olympics was in Beijing in 2008.
Meanwhile, Gracenote’s report makes no mention of India. India’s 117-member contingent has not landed a spot because the forecast report’s attention is limited to the top 30 nations.
Gracenote had predicted that India would finish 18th and win several medals in the shooting event at the Tokyo Olympics with 19 medals. Rather, India finished 48th in shooting with no medals, but won seven overall.
Being the hosts has historically given countries an advantage, and this time around it is expected to happen as well. It is anticipated that France would win nearly three times as many gold medals as they did in Tokyo. This time, a small fragment of the Eiffel Tower will be inlaid into the medals.
Spending is higher for host countries when it comes to an Olympic home, and home crowd support is beneficial for athletes competing in familiar environments. On the other hand, Japan, who set a record three years ago with 58 total medals, including 27 gold, is predicted to struggle this time.
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The participation of athletes from Belarus and, to a lesser extent, Russia is the unknown element. Because of the conflict in Ukraine, they have missed the majority of international events in the past two years. Additionally, any medals those athletes win are not to be listed in any medal tables under IOC directive. Three years ago in Tokyo, more than three hundred Russian athletes participated. This time there might only be a dozen or so in all.
