In strategic circles, the consensus is that Israel has effectively neutralized Hamas in Gaza until it reemerges. With intelligence-driven targeted strikes, Israel has virtually destroyed the Hezbollah leadership and is still hitting its ammunition stockpile and supporters in Lebanon.
Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, is one of the fifteen Houthi rebel targets that US forces have attacked. All three of the terror groups that are backed by Iran and have a “H” initial have been seriously impacted, but they are not completely eradicated. Senior Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders have also been removed by Israel over the years.
Iran’s latest missile attacks on Israel have significantly raised the likelihood of a full-scale conflict because of the widespread belief that Israel cannot allow Iran to escape punishment. The US military has significantly expanded its presence in the area in the meanwhile. It’s time to acknowledge Israel’s and Iran’s superior military might.
Comparing the last week’s violent episodes in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict to weekly averages from October 7, 2023, to August 31, 2024, shows an almost five-fold rise. The geographical area is expanding as well, encompassing more of Lebanon at this point.
Israeli intelligence destroyed thousands of Hezbollah walkie-talkies and beepers in mid-September 2024, killing dozens of group members and injuring hundreds more. Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, on September 27, 2024, during an airstrike on the organization’s Beirut headquarters. In retaliation, Iran fired waves of ballistic missiles and other weapons of mass disruption towards Israel. In southern Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have deployed ground forces. Israel has increased both the quantity and precision of its strikes. Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, drawing the country directly into the conflict.
There are efforts on to force Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire and withdraw its fighters from the border in order to avert a full-scale conflict. The creation of a buffer zone is suggested. Significant civilian casualties in Lebanon could result from an escalation of the conflict, which could also expand to Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and other nations.
Since the Iranian revolution of 1979, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has supported the establishment of Lebanese Hezbollah by giving funding, supplies, training, and strategic advice to the Shia group. The primary goals of Hezbollah have been to expel Israel from Lebanon and, in the end, to destroy the state of Israel.
Hezbollah has thousands of standoff weapons, including missiles and rockets, from Iran. Israel wants to significantly weaken Hezbollah’s military capabilities. Israel desires a greater buffer zone to prevent Hezbollah from organizing another October 07 from the north. During Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, since troops started a ground incursion earlier this week, over 250 Hezbollah operatives have been killed. Although Iran’s distance from the theater, its feeble conventional force, and its lackluster response to Israeli attacks have limited the country’s ability to assist Hezbollah.
The United States has proposed a proposal to stop Israeli overflights over Lebanon and move Hezbollah fighters further north. Hezbollah would withdraw its main military installations from the vicinity of the Israeli border in accordance with this plan. The US provides Israel with military hardware, ammunition, air defense, and intelligence as it works toward a solution.
Also Read: Hamas started the war, Israel is finishing it
Iran launched its second direct attack on Israel in as many months on October 1. It was an attempt to save face after several high-profile Israeli assassinations. The goal of the reaction was to force Israel to reconsider the possible consequences of any attack on Iranian interests. Still, there were questions about how successful the strike was. Following the attack, Tehran declared that it would not send troops to Gaza or Lebanon and that it was unwilling to go to war.
Iran has too many weaknesses to risk starting a full-scale conflict with a technologically advanced enemy like Israel, supported by the world’s most powerful nation, the United States. However, failing to act would put Iran’s credibility in jeopardy with both its allies and enemies. Iran’s capacity to project power and exert influence in the area would be diminished.
The Iranian leadership knows that if they yield, Israel will target their proxies in Syria, Iraq, and eventually Iran itself after Lebanon. Iran appears weaker in spite of its massive missile arsenal and the power of its proxies.
In what way will Israel “repay”? One easy solution would be for Israel to simply attack military sites, such as Iranian missile production and launch bases. A more drastic course of action would be to attack Iranian nuclear sites, such the enrichment facility in Natanz. It might also hit important offshore gas installations in the Persian Gulf, big oil refineries in Isfahan and Abadan, or a major port hub at Bandar Abbas. These choices might seriously impair Iran’s ability to operate and its economy.
Iran’s parliament debated its nuclear doctrine on October 1. A few legislators are pushing for the creation of a nuclear weapon. It appears that the nuclear option is making a bigger appearance in the public conversation. It is evident that the world and Israel are most concerned about Tehran’s build-up of uranium close to weapon grade and its potential to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran believes that the only way to counterbalance an opponent’s supremacy is with a nuclear weapon.
China, which has petroleum interests in Iran, is in a similar situation. Not a full-fledged conflict, but a shift in US focus from the Indo-Pacific is what it wants. Beijing has made an effort to project an image of being a more experienced force than Washington in recent years. China facilitated the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran last year and organized meetings between Hamas and Fatah, two Palestinian factions.
A full-scale conflict may interrupt energy exports from the Persian Gulf and have an impact on the world economy and oil market. The September 2019 Houthi drone attack on Saudi Aramco facilities neutralized almost 50% of Saudi Arabia’s production, or 5% of the world’s oil supplies. A regional conflict might have far more profound effects.
Iran has warned that governments with US bases in the area, including as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain, would be viewed as accomplices in an assault against Iran and that their vital infrastructure would also be targeted.
The military might of Israel is unmatched in the Middle East. Israelis must serve in the military for 24 months when they enlist at the age of 17. Three million men and women are eligible to enlist in the military. This is in addition to the 465,000 reserve members and 170,000 active duty members. For 2024, Israel allocated $30.5 billion for defense, or 5.3% of GDP. Israel boasts a top-notch defense sector. They lead the world in unmanned systems, electronic warfare, missiles, avionics, and air defense weaponry, among other areas.
Israel has fought numerous full-fledged battles and has years of military experience; overall, they have emerged victorious. The IDF and the US have had a tight security partnership since 1967. This partnership has included research and development work on the F-15I and the Arrow defense system, among other projects. It is thought that the IDF has kept a nuclear weapons capability in existence since 1967, and it may have between 80 and 400 nuclear warheads.
The IDF and other Israeli organizations have frequently employed targeted killing or assassination as a tactic. The IDF has employed the Hannibal Directive, which was first implemented in 1986, as a method to stop enemy troops from capturing Israeli soldiers. A common literal interpretation of it is “an IDF soldier was better dead than abducted.” The Dahiya doctrine is an asymmetric warfare military strategy that supports the use of “disproportionate power” to achieve its goals and includes the use of artillery and aerial fire against civilian infrastructure that terrorist organizations use.
The IDF is equipped with a variety of weaponry made both domestically and abroad, but its own weapons industry produced the Merkava battle tank series, the Kfir and Nesher fighter aircraft, and a number of small guns. There are numerous sizable internal R&D departments within the IDF.
Israel has extremely sophisticated electronic systems. Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries, and Rafael are the three Israeli businesses that were included in the global ranking of the top 100 manufacturers of weapons and military services providers. With a 2.3% global share of major arms exports, India accounts for the greatest percentage of its revenue, making it a significant player in the global arms market as well.
Israel’s missile arsenal is among the most sophisticated in terms of technology. In addition to producing a large number of tactical systems with lesser ranges, Israel also has a stockpile of long-range ballistic missiles, known as the Jericho series, which it uses for strategic deterrent.
Israel’s Arrow anti-ballistic missile system, which the US and Israel jointly developed and funded, has effectively engaged in combat intercepts of approaching ballistic missile attacks. Incoming ballistic missiles are intercepted by the Arrow 3 using hit-to-kill technology in orbit before they can reenter the atmosphere. The Iron Dome system and David’s Sling, which defend against short-range rockets and long-range missiles, respectively, are the next level defenses. Operationally, both have been successful. Additionally, Israel and the US have collaborated on the creation of the Nautilus, or THEL, tactical high-energy laser system, which is intended to counter medium-range rockets. A short-range laser beam air defense system called Iron Beam was developed to destroy mortar bombs, artillery, and rockets. Israel therefore possesses a multi-layered air defense system.
To enable Israel a second strike capability, the Dolphin-class submarines have been modified to carry nuclear-warhead Popeye Turbo Submarine-launched cruise missiles.
Israel holds the official distinction of being a major non-NATO ally of the United States. Under a 10-year deal, the US gives Israel $3.8 billion in military aid annually with the goal of enabling it to sustain a “qualitative military edge” over neighboring nations. Furthermore, the US military has $493 million worth of prepositioned War Reserve stockpiles in Israel. Israel and India have close military and strategic relations. Israel and India collaborate on numerous initiatives together. According to Israeli officials, Indian nationals are the world’s most ardent supporters of Israel.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Sepah) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Artesh) make up the Iranian Armed Forces. Their 610,000 active troops and 350,000 reserve troops make them the largest in the Middle East.
With a small amount of imports from Russia in the 1990s during the Iran-Iraq War, American systems predate the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and make up the majority of Iran’s foreign armaments. But since then, the nation has started a significant internal rearmament program, and its inventory has grown more indigenous.
Iran has produced a variety of weapons and ammunition, including tanks, armored vehicles, drones, as well as several naval assets and aerial defense systems. Iran has also committed a significant amount of money into an ambitious ballistic and cruise missile program for mid-range strike capability.
Iran’s space and ballistic missile programs continue to be widely discussed worldwide. Iran maintains that nuclear payloads are not intended to be delivered by its missile program. A very successful drone manufacturing program exists in Iran as well. Iran and Russia have developed stronger ties since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, with Iran providing Russia with sophisticated weapons such the HESA Shahed 136. Russia started giving Iran more sophisticated weaponry in exchange, such as the Yakovlev Yak-130 jet trainer.
Iran presently possesses the Chinese F-7, F-14 Tomcat, F-5, F-4 Phantoms, Mirage F1, MiG-29, Su-25, and Su-24MK. Despite years of UN arms embargo, Iran’s military has not yet fully recovered. The Russian Su-30s, Su-34, Su-35, and even the fifth-generation Su-57 have all been highly sought after by them. Iran had long desired to obtain two squadrons (24 aircraft) of Chinese J-10 fighters equipped with AL-31FN engines, which are manufactured in Russia. 93% of Iran’s oil sales in 2023 went to China.
There are many Russian T-72 tanks in Iran, as well as localized versions of the same tank. The Iranian armed forces and the IRGC have placed orders with local industry for around 800 Karrar main combat tanks. Among its 20,000 vessels are 31 amphibious ships, 5 corvettes, 6 frigates, and 19 submarines.
The Middle East’s largest and most varied missile arsenal is found in Iran. Iran reportedly possesses “over 3,000” ballistic missiles with a maximum range of 6,000 kilometers, according to a 2022 assessment from US Central Command. The nation’s growing land-attack cruise missile fleet is not included in this.
The Shahab-3, which went into service in 2003, can fire from silos and mobile launchers and has a warhead capacity of 760 to 1,200 kg. It is around 300 meters accurate. It looks that the warhead of the new Fattah-1 is mounted on a “manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle.”
Prior to the Islamic revolution, the majority of Iran’s armaments were purchased from Europe and the United States. The nation started reversing the engineering of Soviet RPG-7, BM21, and SA-7 missiles in 1979. Iran has been producing its own tanks, fighter planes, missiles, armored personnel carriers, submarines, and tanks since 1993. The S-300, also known as the Bavar 373, was reverse-engineered. The Defense Ministry works with 92 colleges and around 3,150 national businesses. Iran’s military industry now produces and exports a wide range of weapons and gear. Iran declared in February 2023 that 93% of its military requirements could be met on its own.
Israel possesses a formidable military. The United States of America maintains a significant military presence in the area and is dedicated to protecting Israel, their primary partner. It is unlikely that the Chinese and Russians will actively participate in the fighting. Both of them want the US to become involved in another war in order to deflect criticism and make concessions.
Iran is aware of the situation on the ground. It does not want the conflict to worsen since that would result in the destruction of its oil infrastructure and nuclear installations. It will destroy the economy and possibly lead to a change of government. It seeks only retaliatory actions to save face.
Israel seeks to eliminate Hezbollah’s and Hamas’s military capacity to strike it. Israel has long desired to eliminate Iran’s capacity to produce nuclear weapons. The US had stopped it in the hopes of controlling Iran.
Undoubtedly, Iran is very near to obtaining a nuclear weapon. For the entire region, such a capability will be unacceptable and harmful. Given the deep religious split between Sunnis and Shias that currently exists, it would have grave consequences. The world needs Iran’s nuclear weapons development to be ended immediately. The whole economy would suffer if the Middle East conflict escalated. It’s a tightrope walk, so hopefully the participants won’t trip.
