Since the ouster of ‘pro-India’ leader Sheikh Hasina from office in Bangladesh, a tsunami of pessimism has descended on Indians, and her opponents, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, have emerged as prominent in the new order of things. There is no doubt that Hasina’s tenure in power aided India’s primary strategic goals in the area by providing a stable ally in the east, but not everything is lost with her departure.
In fact, the tendency to designate every day as an apocalypse occasionally goes too far, closing the door to meaningful collaboration with anyone in charge in the community. We cannot select our neighbors, nor can we choose their leadership, and while we may not always have a favorable hand in power, common sense requires that the engagement must continue.
This is because if India does not engage with Bangladesh, another power will fill the void, which would be disastrous for Indian interests. The sense of pessimism that pervades our current state of mind regarding Bangladesh is not new.
A similar loss of optimism occurred earlier this year, when our relations with another neighbour deteriorated as a result of their new leadership’s execution of a “India Out” strategy. Today, India is back in the saddle after a successful visit by Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, which ended last week with the Maldives government’s general feeling being “Welcome India”.
When Mohamed Muizzu won the presidential elections in 2023 with 54% of the vote, it was clear to India that relations with this country would suffer during the new president’s tenure. After all, Muizzu had contested the elections with a jingoistic ‘India Out’ campaign, successfully creating a narrative around the country’s overt intervention in Maldives domestic affairs. The presence of Indian personnel in the Maldives, stationed for non-combat tasks and whose sole mission was to operate the Maldives’ defense equipment and helicopters, was at the heart of his claim against India. They also played an important role in training the Maldivian National Defence Force for disaster response.
However, Muizzu’s ambition to benefit politically from anti-India sentiment outweighed the Maldives’ national interest, and he rose to power by accusing India of bogus charges. Once in office, he followed through on his promise by actually seeing ‘India Out’ when the 90-odd Indian military personnel stationed in the country were removed at his request in May 2024. Interestingly, those military troops were replaced solely by Indian civilians, who were assigned to a technical team to help in the functioning of equipment in the Maldives.
The removal of Indian forces from the country was accompanied by a further strain in relations when a group of Maldivian lawmakers began referring to PM Modi’s promotion of tourism in Lakshadweep island as an attempt to undermine the Maldives’ tourism sector. It was a ludicrous charge with no factual basis at all. A few Indian social media accounts took a joke to an absurd extreme, resulting in a diplomatic conflict between India and the Maldives.
In August 2024, relations between the two countries appear to have undergone a 180-degree reversal. S Jaishankar completed a fruitful tour of the Maldives this week, marking New Delhi’s first high-level visit to the country since Muizzu took control. During the visit, he not only met with President Muizzu and communicated Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s best wishes, but he also assessed the India-funded projects now underway in the Maldives.
This includes the Greater Male Connectivity Project, which will be supported by a $100 million Indian grant and a $400 million line of credit. Once completed, it will connect the Maldives’ capital, Male, to the islands of Villingli, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi. Jaishankar sponsored a ₹923 crore project to improve sanitation facilities on 28 Maldivian islands.
The project will offer climate-resilient, cost-effective water and sewerage infrastructure to approximately 7% of the Maldives’ total population. President Muizzu thanked him for this generosity and stated on X that India and the Maldives’ partnership will continue. Interestingly, Muizzu has toned down his anti-India remarks during the previous few months. During a speech commemorating his country’s independence day, he extended his “sincere gratitude” to India for “easing their debt repayment burden” and allowing the country to maintain its “economic sovereignty”.
This is a complete reversal from when he demanded ‘India out’ and accused the country of violating Maldives sovereignty. Not only that, but he also indicated in the same address that he is negotiating a free trade agreement and a currency exchange arrangement, implying that trade connections with India will be expanded.
From India Out to Welcome India, what has changed in the Maldives? First and foremost, despite growing animosity among Indians toward the Maldives, the Indian government maintained its pragmatic side by continuing to interact with the Muizzu leaders. President Muizzu was invited to India during PM Modi’s swearing-in ceremony in June, and India extended its budgetary contribution of $50 million for another year. India even increased its development support to the Maldives by around 50% in the interim budget before the Modi government ran for re-election.
Despite tensions between the two countries, India fulfilled its promise to invest approximately ₹800 crore on economic projects in India. India’s refusal to let the Maldives fall into the hands of any extra-regional force was matched by the Maldives’ own predicaments. For all of their leadership’s passionate hatred of India, the truth is that they are in a serious economic crisis, with approximately $1 billion in dues to the market by 2026. They can only rely on India to ease their debt servicing burden by continuously rolling over its share of debt to the Maldives. It did this in May, and it may do it again in September.
Even in terms of security, the Maldives, as an Indian Ocean country with an exclusive economic zone spanning 900,000 square kilometers, relies largely on India to safeguard itself against non-state actors like as drug paddlers, arms smugglers, and pirates. For a long time, India has been its principal security partner, supplying the small island nation with defense weaponry on a regular basis.
Even in terms of the economy, the tourism sector is the backbone of the Maldivian economy, with threats of boycott from Indians putting the government under intense strain. Following a 42% drop in tourism, its foreign minister paid a visit to India in May, urging Indians to visit the Maldives because their economy is dependent on it. They are even launching a new effort to attract Indian tourists to the country by hosting “Welcome India” outreach initiatives in major Indian cities.
Clearly, there has been a significant shift in India-Maldives relations, with the latter finally realising that its reliance on India is too deep to wish away. Also, the Indian government should be commended for nurturing as many levers as possible in the Maldives that can be used to advance India’s strategic objectives in the area.
Diplomatic relations in a neighborhood are never set in stone, and the Maldives is a prime illustration of this. What appears to be the end of the road could simply be a difficult turn, after which the journey will be much smoother and better. Over the last decade, there have been numerous examples that demonstrate this. India was formerly written off in Sri Lanka, but as we all know, that changed in 2022. We can expect the same to happen in the Maldives by 2024.
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This brings us to today’s burning question: what about Bangladesh? Well, India has once again demonstrated pragmatism by granting Hasina a safe passage at a later date when Awami League workers will require a leadership face for resurrection. Simultaneously, India is interacting with the interim government. In politics, we can never dismiss any of the players. The smart way is to develop bridges on both sides of the spectrum. No matter who leads Bangladesh, development support from India, the prospect of being helped out of debt-ridden difficulties like the Maldives and Sri Lanka, the allure of India’s vast market, and the security provided by its military strength will always be on their minds.
After all, if Bangladesh is such a major economic success story, India has also played an important part, as acknowledged in their internal vision documents. The people there may hold grievances against India today, but they will eventually come around. Today’s India knows that sustained engagement is essential for neighbourhood diplomacy, and the effects are visible to all.
