There have been reports of intense fighting between Hezbollah and Israel Defense Forces soldiers in south Lebanon, along with airstrikes and shelling of Hezbollah strongholds, since the Israeli invasion of Lebanon started.
Many have been afraid over the past year that the conflict between Hamas and Israel may spread to neighboring nations and engulf West Asia in bloodshed. Israel now maintains that the goal of its so-called “limited ground operation” is to drive Hezbollah out of south Lebanon.
Israel declared in mid-September that it was reorienting its defense strategy to its northern border, where Hezbollah missiles had forced 70,000 people to flee in the previous year. The war’s objectives, according to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, have changed to include making sure these citizens can safely return to their homes.
Israel says it has destroyed much of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure and removed much of its leadership after two weeks of missile attacks into Lebanon. This next stage of the war will be more dangerous for the surrounding area as well as more difficult for all parties engaged.
The prospect that Lebanon may collapse as a state if this conflict intensifies is likely lost in the discussions over whether Israel can defeat Hezbollah (and Hamas) in Gaza, how Iran—Hezbollah and Hamas’ principal ally—would react, and who will prevail in the end.
Lebanon is a fragile nation that has endured a decade of severe political and economic upheaval, human rights abuses, corruption, and a collapse in public confidence in the government. Due to its inability to fully recover from the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, its economy is weak. The Lebanese economy was still in shock from the collapse of its banking system in 2019 and the default on its unmanageably enormous debt in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic struck.
The ability of average Lebanese citizens to support themselves and their families has been further weakened by pressures from global inflation and the expense of living. Due to recent capital losses, relatively few international investors are willing to take a chance with their money in that nation. The average person’s salary has significantly decreased and is still quite low, at about $3,300 (£2,460) (it was about $9,000 in 2018).
After the crisis in 2019, Lebanon’s economy has completely collapsed, with its GDP falling from $59 billion in 2018 to just $22 billion at present. When you consider that the Lebanese pound has lost 95% of its value and that inflation has reached 200%, almost 50% of the population is now living in poverty.
Waste management and electricity supply have broken down (the state power company in Lebanon is barely able to provide two hours of electricity a day). Foreign exchange reserves are extremely low, and Lebanon has an annual trade deficit of about US$9 billion. This has made it more difficult for regular Lebanese people to get the products and services they require to survive, let alone prosper.
Even brief wars can have terrible aftereffects on the economy that persist long after hostilities cease. If past conflicts provide any indication, Israel and Hezbollah will likely engage in a protracted and fierce battle. The Lebanese economy might easily be destroyed by this war, driving the nation to the brink of collapse.
This would not be the first instance of it occurring. The start of the 1975–1990 Lebanese civil war and the chaotic early 1970s have similarities. Since the civil conflict in Syria began in 2011, there has been an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees, which has put pressure on Lebanon’s ability to supply products and services. There is a considerably greater demand than there is supply for housing, utilities, healthcare, and education.
A multitude of measures, including the 2016 EU-Lebanon Compact, a plan to and financial aid totaling several billion dollars, have been implemented by the international community to assist Lebanon in hosting Syrian refugees. However, the assistance offered has been minimal. Lebanon, which has the greatest refugee-to-citizen ratio in the world, has buckled and stretched.
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As if the country’s political climate wasn’t already one of the most divisive and unstable in the region, add economic unrest and misery to the mix. For the most part of the last five years, Lebanon has lacked a fully operational set of state institutions. Political parties are divided and engaged in fierce rivalry, which makes it impossible for the administration to operate effectively.
Furthermore, millions of common people now face grave threats to their lives and means of subsistence as a result of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and there is little the government can do to assist them.
There have been up to a million population displacements and widespread property and infrastructure destruction in Lebanon. And that was prior to the start of the ground assault.
However, it’s highly likely that one is on its way. Israel wants to ensure that Hezbollah is no longer a credible military threat in order to permanently tip the scales in its favor.
The 34-day war that Israel waged in 2006 against Lebanon bears striking similarities to the considerably larger invasion of 1982. While the 1982 invasion caused enormous destruction, suffering, insecurity, and instability, it lasted until 2000. The 2006 conflict completely destroyed Lebanon’s infrastructure.
There’s a chance that the ongoing conflict will destabilize Lebanon to the point where a second civil war breaks out. Nobody would benefit from this. A broken, unstable, and collapsing Lebanon will only have detrimental effects on Israel and all of West Asia.
If the strong carry out their will while the poor suffer what they must, according to Hobbesian reasoning, collapse and devastation will inevitably occur in Lebanon, West Asia, and other regions. It is crucial that logic and common sense win out and that the conflict between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah ceases to worsen.
