India announced that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan as part of the ongoing BRICS summit, just hours after China, without mentioning the agreement reached with India on patrolling along the Line of Actual Control, confirmed that it had “reached a solution” and “would work with India” to “effectively implement the plan.”
There have been celebrations in many parts of India, despite the fact that China has not even bothered to refer to the deal by name and that the details have not yet been finalized. The celebrations on Indian social media have started after China repeatedly demonstrated that it does not follow agreements, let alone ones whose details are unclear. The degree to which China will genuinely follow the “solution” is yet unknown. Understanding why China accepted the deal at this particular moment, just prior to the BRICS summit, is also more important. This year’s BRICS summit features a larger membership.
At the G20 last year, India demonstrated its ability to successfully manage geopolitical tensions by producing a proclamation that was signed by every nation, something that was unexpected in some parts of the world. At the G20, India also represented the Global South, bringing up challenges and offering solutions related to women-led development, sustainability, climate change, and a host of other topics that are particularly significant to the Global South’s nations.
Given India’s successful G20 presidency, its highest-performing current growth rates, and its extended membership in the BRICS, it would be detrimental to China’s reputation if it were perceived as persistently intimidating one of the key voices of the Global South. After India revealed the “solution,” it took China at least eighteen hours to declare it, and then in extremely mild terms. At home, it shows that China’s border situation is deteriorating, particularly under a leader who aspires to project a powerful image. In fact, some have questioned why China even needed to consider a settlement with a nation like India on Chinese social media!
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Social media is frequently used for psychological warfare, as is widely recognized and documented. Because both Taiwan and China use the Chinese language (though one uses the traditional format and the other uses the simplified format), Taiwan is the country that suffers the most from China’s psychological warfare on social media. It is aware that China-sponsored handles or “little pinks” are used to conveniently spread state narratives that cannot be publicly stated by party officials or government departments.
Pro-China accounts in Taiwanese cyberspace propagate the propaganda that the “solution” with India signifies that India has chosen China over Taiwan and that, given China’s economic and political might, India cannot ignore it. This becomes especially intriguing because China had said that it had “lodged solemn representations” with India following the opening of the third Taipei and Economic Cultural Centre (TECC) by the Indian government just one day prior to India’s announcement of the agreement with China regarding the restoration of patrolling rights.
For a long time, India and China had been negotiating the return of patrolling rights. The third TECC would not have been opened if India had any intention of ignoring Taiwan. Due to Taiwan’s accomplishments in semiconductors and chip manufacturing, India, eager to establish itself as a substitute for businesses adopting the China-plus-one approach, has been actively seeking Taiwanese investment in 2024 alone. About 170,000 employment have been created in India as a result of the approximately 44.46 billion Taiwanese enterprises have invested there as of February 2024.
Although there are no figures for Chinese foreign direct investment in India in 2024, in 2021, Chinese investment in India was just $63.18 million, which is significantly less than Taiwan’s 2024 FDI. In actuality, China’s share in India’s overall FDI inflow was a meager 0.37 percent between April 2000 and March 2024. In 2024, India launched more than 30 anti-dumping probes against China, the most ever against one nation. China has a lengthy history of dumping commodities and breaking Indian economic regulations, both of which are prohibited by the WTO. Additionally, India has placed duties of up to 30% on certain Chinese steel imports, which will remain in effect for five years.
This year, Taiwan and India also inked a labour mobility agreement, and both countries are eager to see if it benefits them both. India does not currently have any such agreements with China, and it has no intention of doing so. Since there is still a significant confidence gap, India’s border defenses with China are still in existence. This kind of lack of confidence between Taiwan and India does not exist.
If anything, Prime Minister Narendra Modi subtly poked fun at China during this year’s East Asia conference in Vietnam when he said that the Indo-Pacific region as a whole benefited from the peace, security, and stability of the South China Sea. India has no justification for criticizing Taiwan for anything, no matter how subtle.
In an effort to portray Taiwan in India as suffering the same fate, pro-Chinese accounts are also taking advantage of the fact that last week, South Africa requested that Taiwan relocate its de facto embassy, known as the Taipei Liaison Office, from the capital, Pretoria. Nonetheless, India has demonstrated that it views Taiwan as a significant partner by its diplomatic and commercial activities with Taiwan. India doesn’t initially favor one nation over another, and it certainly doesn’t distrust its neighbors over significant partners in technology and the economy.
