On Saturday, October 26, Israeli fighter jets attacked 20 Iranian military installations early in the morning. Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, later declared: “The air force attacked throughout Iran.” We severely impacted Iran’s defense capability and its capacity to manufacture missiles directed at us. The attack on Iran was strong and accurate, and it accomplished all of its goals.
Interestingly, Israel refrained from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, possibly as a result of the Biden administration’s strong warnings against doing so.
Even while the Israeli strikes appear to be targeted at Iranian military targets and are calibrated, there have been worries about a possible escalation of the confrontation. The proper response to the Israeli attacks is a topic of discussion in Iran right now. Some people think that if Iran did nothing in response to the Israeli attacks, which need a military response, it would be perceived as weak.
Many others, however, point out that the Israeli attacks were not as widespread as initially thought and that the Iranian government claims they did not do significant damage. Additionally, they contend that a counterattack by Iran would cause the situation to worsen and that the damage from a second, maybe larger, Israeli strike would be far worse than that from the most recent one.
Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, made some extremely intriguing comments regarding the Israeli attacks. The “Zionists are miscalculating with regard to Iran,” he warned. Iran is unknown to them. They are still unable to accurately comprehend the strength, initiative, and resolve of the Iranian people. We must help them comprehend these concepts.
Was there a demand for conflict escalation in Khamenei’s remarks? He also stated that “the evil committed by the Zionist regime should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated,” therefore this hardly applies. The way Iran’s power is shown to Israel should be “determined by the officials and that whatever is in the interests of the people and the country should take place,” Khamenei stated. Ayatollah Khamenei’s comments make it quite evident that he does not want the latest Israeli attack to inevitably result in a military escalation.
The main conclusion from Khamenei’s statements is that he prefers prudence to recklessness. It is evident from his comments that he does not want the Israeli attack to inevitably result in a conflict escalation. He told his officials that “whatever is in the best interest of the people and the country should take place” and that they shouldn’t feel pressured to launch a retaliation.
Another intriguing aspect of Khamenei’s comments is that they are far more circumspect than his previous statements regarding certain previous Israeli attacks. For instance, Khamenei had pledged “harsh punishment” in response to the July 31 murder of Hamas senior leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. He reiterated his vow to seek retribution for the September 27 murder of Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah. In contrast, he is far more moderate in his comments about Israel’s recent strike on Iran. The Israeli attacks “should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated,” according to him.
Iranians are becoming increasingly concerned that a military escalation will have a devastating effect on the country’s already struggling economy. Iran has been dealing with a failing currency, rising unemployment, and excessive inflation. The economic condition for the middle class in Iran has significantly worsened. Because of US sanctions, Iran’s standard of living fell precipitously. The Iranian leadership uses subsidies for necessities like food and fuel in an attempt to purchase social harmony. Though the administration brutally puts an end to them, demonstrations against the political leadership do occur regularly and are frequently sparked by rising prices. The economic climate does, however, make one wonder if Iran’s economy could withstand an extended war with Israel.
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Iran must also consider the possibility that the United States could become involved in the war if it escalates. This might be Netanyahu’s desire. Iran would suffer terrible repercussions if this were to occur. Iran’s growing ties with its Gulf Arab neighbors could suffer if the conflict’s scope and scope significantly expand.
Many inside the Iranian leadership also contend that the Israeli attacks are not worthy of an Iranian response and that de-escalation is preferable to escalation for all of these reasons. After Israel conducted airstrikes in Iran on Saturday, the Israeli military had already warned the Islamic republic that it would “pay a heavy price” if it started a new round of escalation. In a statement, Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari stated, “We will have to react if the Iranian leadership makes the error of starting a new round of escalation. Our message is clear: There will be severe consequences for anyone who threatens the State of Israel and tries to push the region toward a wider escalation.
Naturally, Iran’s Foreign Ministry has stated that Tehran is “entitled and obligated to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression” and accused Israel of escalating regional tensions, but these statements are merely diplomatic ploys. The Israeli attacks have been downplayed by Iranian state television and media sources connected to the influential Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Regardless, the Supreme Leader has ordered that “whatever is in the best interest of the people and the country should take place” and that the Israeli assaults “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” In light of growing concerns about a conflict escalation, this directive to the Iranian administration to take restraint is commendable.
The global energy market, which has a significant impact on nations like India that depend heavily on imports of natural gas and oil, was thought to be one of the major effects of a conflict escalation. Crude prices might skyrocket if the Iran-Israel conflict escalates and disrupts Middle Eastern energy supplies. Oil prices had been rising due to geopolitical unpredictability, but fortunately, they have now dropped 4.2% after Israeli missiles avoided hitting Iran’s oil facilities.
