Undoubtedly, the drama that unfolded in Dhaka has global ramifications with several foreign players involved; however, a country that will feel the most pronounced impact will definitely be India. Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and the subsequent regime change in Bangladesh come out as another geopolitical shake-up in a series of tremors upsetting the existing world order.
Bangladesh, a rare example of an Islamic nation with vibrant democracy and a burgeoning economy, falls flat and surrenders to Islamist forces led by the Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamic extremist organization with proven links to terrorist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Bangladesh and India have a 4,000-kilometer-long shared border. India is the second-biggest trading partner of Bangladesh in Asia, and Bangladesh’s major trading partner in South Asia. India has always had a significant role in Bangladesh’s internal and external policy since it was instrumental in the country’s establishment as an independent entity in 1971. The Gandhi family in India provided Mujib’s family with warmth and familial ties. Sheikh Hasina and her family were living in West Germany when Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi offered them protection and a place to stay following the murder of Mujib and his eighteen family members. Sheikh Hasina, the deposed prime minister, lived in exile in Delhi for six years.
As a result, Mujib and his daughter continued to be ardent supporters of India, a relationship that was further cemented under the Narendra Modi administration. The two countries’ relations haven’t always been friendly and easygoing, though. Bangladesh has caused New Delhi its fair share of problems, from illegal immigration and boundary disputes to terrorist attacks against India. However, New Delhi has always found it easier to protect and advance its interests in Bangladesh under the Sheikh Hasina government. India has become Bangladesh’s most reliable strategic, economic, and development partner throughout the last 15 years of the Hasina administration.
India’s security and economic interests in relation to Bangladesh will suffer greatly from the recent geopolitical turmoil in Bangladesh. The last secular leader in Bangladesh preventing extremist Islamists from overthrowing secular democracy was Sheikh Hasina. The greatest threat to India following her overthrow is the emergence of Islamic extremist groups and their growing influence on the government and people of Bangladesh. Not that Bangladesh was a model of secularism under Hasina. Already, there were strong undercurrents of radical forces present. The 2016 attack on the Gulshan bakery in the diplomatic enclave demonstrated the growth of Da’esh.
It is commonly known that extreme Islamists have killed secular bloggers. Nonetheless, Hasina met the threat of rapidly proliferating Islamic radicalism head-on, taking decisive and brutal action against it. Now, in Hasina-less Bangladesh, extreme elements would have complete control over society and the state apparatus, operating with impunity.
It is well known that the outlawed extremist group Jamaat-i-Islami and its affiliate, the Bangladesh National Party, were key players in the most recent anti-government demonstrations. The primary group inciting the violent mobs in the streets was the Jamaat cadres. Following Hasina’s overthrow, Jamaat reopened for business over ten years later, and its leader Shafiq-ur-Rehman met with Army Chief Waker-us-Zaman to determine the composition of the provisional administration.
On August 27, the Islamist leaders who had been imprisoned were freed and the Jamaat-e-Islami ban was lifted by the interim administration headed by Nobel winner Muhammad Yunus. In addition, AFM Khalid Hussain, the head of Hifazat-e-Islam, the largest Islamist organization, has been named to the temporary government. These developments amply suggest that the main actors going forward will be Jamaat-i-Islami and its allies.
Notably, during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, the Pakistani army received help from the extremist organization Jamaat-i-Islami. It is similar to the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt and adheres to the political Islam theory of extremist Islamic scholar Maududi. The ultimate goal is to impose sharia law in Bangladesh in the manner of the Taliban. According to reports, JI cadres assisted the Pakistani army in the mass killings, rapes, and torture of Bangladeshi natives, the majority of whom were Hindus. The top six leaders of JI were put to death for horrific war crimes. Jamaat has established ties to Pakistani Deobandi terrorist organizations, including Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami (HuJI). Its cadres have trained with HuJI in Afghanistan and taken part in terrorist actions.
India struggled to cope with terrorists sponsored by Pakistan from 2001 to 2006, when Jamaat and its principal ally, the BNP, were in power in Bangladesh. Terrorists from Pakistan infiltrated large-scale into Indian territory via Bangladesh. Former BNP leader Khalida Zia was the prime minister of Bangladesh from 1991 to 1996. Through Bangladesh, some of the most despised terrorist leaders, like Maulana Masood Azhar and Sajjad Afghani, gained entry into India. The Bangladesh route was one of the easiest ways for Deobandi groups like Harkat-ul-Mujahiddin to reach India.
In Bangladesh, the ISI had established a strong foundation through the use of a network of agents, sleeper cells, and proxy actors. The most potent ISI stooge in Bangladesh was Jamaat. It is commonly known that Pakistan masterminded numerous high-profile terrorist acts in India in the 1990s and early 2000s. Bangladesh has also become a safe haven for terrorist organizations operating in the Northeast, such as the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) and the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA).
They were being funded and trained by the ISI. Nonetheless, the government of Sheikh Hasina offered complete assistance to Indian law enforcement in suppressing and apprehending the terrorist factions that were making their way to Bangladesh. The future Jamaat/BNP political players are unlikely to offer the Indian government the same level of cooperation and support as they did under the Sheikh Hasina administration. Terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba, who were supported by the ISI, had established strongholds and sleeper cells in Bangladesh. They were radicalizing the Rohingya refugees in Chittagong. The ISI will have far more influence and penetration in Bangladesh with the BNP/Jamaat back in power, directly endangering India through terrorism.
The Hindu minority in Bangladesh is going to face extremely difficult times due to the strong influence of radical Islamists. Jamaat leaders and demonstrators have slain Hindu males and sexually assaulted their wives after attacking multiple Hindu homes and temples following Hasina’s departure. Strong animosity and hostility towards Bangladesh have been sparked by the graphic photos originating from Bangladesh, which have shocked people throughout the entirety of India. If these marginalized minority migrate to India in the future, it will intensify the tensions between Dhaka and New Delhi.
The issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh is a significant difficulty for India. The demographics of various areas in Assam and West Bengal, the two states that border Bangladesh, have significantly changed as a result of the massive migration of Rohingyas and illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. Terrorist and extremist groups are said to have a significant presence among these undocumented immigrants. The concentration of undocumented immigrants along the chicken neck corridor, a slender stretch that links India to its northeast, has caused grave security worries for the country.
The issue of illegal immigration and people trafficking has the potential to escalate into serious conflicts and pose a significant security risk to India, particularly with the possible return of the BNP/Jamaat administrations. That corridor has become a base for Islamic radicals and extremists who are hostile to India. This issue gets even more alarming now that Bangladesh’s political establishment, backed by the ISI, is back in power.
The growing patterns of Islamic extremism and communal polarization in India throughout the last 10 years of the Modi administration serve to highlight these worries. Islamic State-Khorasan Province modules have been exposed by Indian agencies across the nation. With a solid radical base in Bangladesh, Pakistan may more easily network with Islamic extremists in northeastern India and the Indian hinterland, infiltrate cadres, and pose a security risk to India. The strong national feelings against Islamic radicalism are a result of the growing Hindu nationalism in India, and they are expected to worsen given the continuous crimes against Hindus in Bangladesh. Having said that, the two-way relationship will collapse.
China can exert pressure on India by tightening its noose in the Northeast due to the government change in Bangladesh. China is said to have previously provided funding to militants and separatists in India’s unstable northeastern provinces. The bilateral relations between Beijing and Delhi are going through a difficult time following the 2020 Galwan conflict. The boundary conversation has come to a standstill due to recalcitrance on both ends. China will therefore probably take advantage of Bangladesh’s anti-Indian administration in such a situation. Furthermore, Pakistan, India’s worst adversary and China’s all-weather ally, will have more influence in Bangladesh, which will greatly facilitate China’s situation.
Deep-sea drilling efforts by India in the Bay of Bengal will not be supported by an antagonistic regime in Dhaka. One of the most important ways to lessen India’s reliance on oil imports is through oil and gas development in the Bay of Bengal region. India is the third-biggest importer of gas and oil worldwide. The majority of India’s crude oil imports came from West Asia prior to the conflict in Ukraine, but since then, the country has been purchasing Russian oil at a discount. Russia currently supplies 40% of India’s oil imports, which is the greatest percentage.
The successful exploitation of hydrocarbon reserves in the Bay of Bengal region by India would represent a significant milestone in the country’s economic progress. In an interview with an Indian think tank, seasoned intelligence and security expert Namit Verma said that deep-sea drilling in the Bay of Bengal region has been a point of disagreement between the US and India.
He added that the US openly backed Pakistan in the 1971 war, deploying its 7th fleet to the Bay of Bengal to guarantee India’s loss. The aim was to prevent India from conducting deep-sea drilling operations in the area. But back then, after winning the war in 1971, India decided against initiating those projects due to lack of technology and pressure from the US.
But with today’s technology and geopolitical advantages, India is far better equipped to investigate deep-sea drilling in the area. The Shwe gas project off the coast of Myanmar is currently in its second and third phases. POSCO DAEWOO Corporation, ONGC Videsh Ltd, GAIL, and Korean Gas Company are the joint developers of this project. But future sabotage of the Shew gas plant is more likely if India’s enemies establish a bigger presence in Bangladesh.
Also Read: Is India realigning foreign policy after Bangladesh crisis?
It can be argued that the recent regime change in Bangladesh is, in many ways, a massive intelligence failure for India; after all, the country lost Nepal with a similar change in governance, and the new communist government that replaced the monarchy has not been as loyal to India as the monarchs were. In addition, China has made significant gains in most of its neighbors, including Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives; in Bangladesh, there is strong anti-India sentiment because of Hasina’s close friendship with India. As a result, it will be very difficult for India to find common ground with the new political players in Bangladesh.
For Bangladesh, history has come full circle: Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rehman, popularly known as Bangbandhu (friend of Bengalis), who freed the country from the Islamist tyranny of Pakistan and established a secular republic, is now a hated and mistreated figure. Violent protestors are tearing down his statues, which puts an end to his secular legacy. Now, a new chapter in Bangladesh begins, one in which Islamist forces will rule supreme. It is important to note that such drastic changes are rare and difficult to achieve without the support of strong foreign powers.
But their narrow-minded strategy has elevated elements loyal to the ideology of Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, and Islamic States to positions of authority; these elements will soon storm the streets of their foreign backers, unleashing the carnage that many European nations are already experiencing.
