It appears that the chaos is worse than usual. Over twenty-five security personnel were killed in seven attacks in less than twenty-four hours—a record even for Pakistan, which has been suffering from self-inflicted harm on the social, economic, and security fronts for some time. But as of late, everything appears to have curved sharply upward.
While the media was preoccupied with the terrorist attack on the Mianwali Air Force Base, thousands of refugees were forcibly removed in what is likely the worst forced migration incident in recent memory. This tragedy was almost epic in scope.
The attack on the Air Force base is the biggest worry. Although army officials have downplayed the damage, saying it is only related to grounded aircraft, satellite imagery reveals significant damage, including at least ten hangars. Images of terrorists who have been killed are making the rounds to demonstrate the bravery of law enforcement, which is all well and good.
What is noteworthy, though, is the level of organisation and motivation exhibited by Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) cadres who have taken responsibility for the attack. Maulana Abdul Yaghistani is the leader of the group, which may have been established in February of this year. That’s nom-de-guerre for the territories of Yaghistan, which means “the land of the rebels.” These were separate theatres of conflict where the mujahids fought the British.
According to a Twitter account cited by MEMRI, the current group’s goal appears to be establishing an Islamic system in Pakistan. It appears that the account, which reportedly had over 2,000 followers, is no longer active. Sheikh-ul-Hind, also known as Mahmud Hasan Deobandi of the Darul Uloom Deoband in Deoband, Uttar Pradesh, is credited as the source of inspiration for all of this.
According to the group’s statement, “Islamic scholars” attempted to use peaceful methods to revive Sheikh-ul-Hind’s mission, but the arrival of “secular Pakistani elites” created a number of barriers. In addition to inviting other religious political parties to join it, TJP hopes to accomplish its goal through “hundreds of mujahideen and dozens of fidayan of Islam (who) are ever ready to sacrifice with money and body.” Is the goal clearly stated? One component of the “anti-shari’a system” is the security establishments. Since May 12th, it has been claiming attacks and has released a photo of its first victim. There have been at least five suicide attacks since then, so there are no shortages there. But the PAF attack is its first significant assault.
TJP: What is it?
All of this is a little confusing. Mahmud Hasan Deobandi comes from a rather distinguished family: his father was a professor at Bareilly College and one of the co-founders of the Darul Uloom Deoband. Hasan was moved to Deoband and his father was transferred to Meerut during the 1857 uprising. He was detained and imprisoned in Malta in 1916 due to his vehement opposition to the British Raj. In order to attain freedom, he promoted Hindu-Sikh-Muslim unity and wrote religious decrees endorsing the non-cooperation movement. As a result, he inspired Muslims worldwide to join the freedom movement.
All in all, an intriguing source about a bloody conflict in Pakistan. Even before the PAF attack, the TJP itself had carried out about five suicide attacks, more than demonstrating its mettle. Given that all of these are loose confederations, it is possible that it is a faction of the TTP itself, or even one that broke away from Al Qaeda. Even more intriguing, the TTP, along with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and possibly the Taliban, recently carried out a large-scale operation against Shias in Parachinar.
All exits were sealed during that more than ten-day period. There’s an interesting mash-up of groups at work, sometimes cooperating and most of the time fiercely defending their territory. It’s unclear how the TJP fits into this. But it can now declare itself a “top gun” after the PAF attack. Rewards of all kinds result from that, including increased revenue and recruits.
Is a message being sent out?
It becomes even more apparent that multiple groups are cooperating, much like the strike itself. The heavily guarded camp, which was attacked, was a crucial training ground that was renovated in 2017 to house a “Shooter Squadron,” an inventive concept that enables pilots to bridge the gap between low-tech and high-tech aircraft. As per the available information, it accommodates the Chinese fighter trainer aircraft, the No. 86 SAR (Alouette III) units, and potentially two F-7P squadrons.
That dawn raid occurred the day after rebels in the Gwadar district of Baluchistan ambushed a military convoy, killing fourteen soldiers. In the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, authorities simultaneously reported a bombing in Dera Ismail Khan as a police bus was passing by. Not just the TJP was sending out messages. Someone else was as well.
A terrible flight
It is not difficult to find those messengers. The United Nations has appealed against Pakistan’s recent commencement of one of the largest deportations of approximately 1.4 million Afghans, citing their imprisonment, exploitation, and “undignified” treatment, the latter of which is widely visible on social media. It is evident that the Taliban Defence Minister Mullah Yaqub and Sirajuddin Haqqani are furious about this treatment of their brethren, and they have denounced it as “Unislamic.”
At the very least, it is unlikely that this will make life any simpler for the women and kids. A recent earthquake in Afghanistan, with a magnitude of five and a half on the Richter scale, reduced the already impoverished region to dust. Furthermore, a significant portion of the Afghans being driven out are Hazaras, who endure the most severe persecution in Afghanistan. A lot of people would rather die than move on. And the gravest of ironies. These millions departed as a result of Pakistan’s sluggishly carried out proxy conflict with Afghanistan. Nobody leaves their nation unless absolutely necessary.
At the very least, it is unlikely that this will make life any simpler for the women and kids. A recent earthquake in Afghanistan, with a magnitude of five and a half on the Richter scale, reduced the already impoverished region to dust. Furthermore, a significant portion of the Afghans being driven out are Hazaras, who endure the most severe persecution in Afghanistan. A lot of people would rather die than move on. And the gravest of ironies. These millions departed as a result of Pakistan’s sluggishly carried out proxy conflict with Afghanistan. Nobody leaves their nation unless absolutely necessary.
Removing Afghans won’t end the conflict
One more irony? According to a research report, since the Taliban took power, there has been a startling 73% increase in terrorist incidents. That’s a pretty bad representation of Pakistan’s two-decade proxy conflict. Now, it appears to be a farce and a warning that harbouring terrorist camps for an extended period of time is hazardous. The iconic photo of then-DG ISI Lt Gen Faiz Hameed sipping tea in the Serena hotel in Kabul on September 4, days after the Taliban took over, was heralded in Pakistan as the “Serena swagger.”
It is disastrous to host them and their numerous relatives, clansmen, and criminal cousins for forty years. The report also shows that, at 92% and 81%, respectively, KP and Balochistan have seen the highest increases in terror incidents. It makes sense that a map of refugee clusters would indicate that there are the greatest numbers of refugees in these areas. Given Pakistan’s limited capacity to combat terrorism (it prioritises prosecuting rather than preventing acts of terror), a mass exodus of refugees would be the best solution. Not at all. Refugees could provide a pool of potential recruits, to start. However, the leaders of terrorist organisations, such as Omar Khalid Khurasani in the TTP, Mawlawi Faqir Mohammad, Mufti Hazrat Deroji, and Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud and his three deputies, are all Pakistanis.
Next was Aslam Farooqi of the Islamic State of Khorasan, who had previously belonged to a group associated with Kashmir. They’re all seated in Afghanistan, too. Presently, Pakistan has provided them with thousands of potential cadres, all the while criticising the Taliban for not “taking action” against the TTP. Why should the Taliban, considering the TTP has been fighting alongside it for years? In addition, they are the stormtroopers of Kabul.
Things are probably going to get worse as the Afghans are being bullied and the DG (ISPR) bravely presents the attacks. Asim Munir, the chief, is currently working on several fronts. In addition to the security and economic crises, there is an upcoming election, a furious populace, and a demand that Pakistan “do something” about the Palestine issue. Even though Maulana Fazlur Rehman has escaped several terrorist attempts on his life, he smiles for the camera during his photo shoot with the leader of Hamas in Qatar.
Other than that, Pakistan’s current state of affairs leave little room for action. Think about how tiny, six times smaller-than-territory Tajikistan sent a convoy of trucks carrying supplies to Afghanistan. Pakistan mailed fifty tents. Pakistan won’t matter any more as terrorist attacks increase, which they will, with the exception of one area. Its nuclear weapons are that. Their safety is under greater threat than it has ever been from cadres who are anything but mullahs. It’s that red light blinking. The world needs to pay attention now.
