Right now, there’s a lot of talk in the media about Prime Minister Narendra Modi perhaps traveling to Russia in July. Though New Delhi has not yet officially announced this, reports suggest that the Kremlin is getting ready to welcome Prime Minister Modi on his first visit to the nation since the country’s war with Ukraine began two years ago.
This visit is scheduled to occur nearly weeks after the peace meeting in Switzerland, during which India avoided upsetting its close ally, Russia, by keeping a low profile. Interestingly, despite winning the election a third time in a row, this will be PM Modi’s first bilateral visit to any nation.
The decision is significant because, upon winning elections in 2014 and 2019, he selected neighboring nations for his first bilateral trips in each of his two terms in office. He has traveled to Bhutan in 2014 and the Maldives and Sri Lanka in 2019 to demonstrate his support for the neighborhood first approach.
Modi 3.0’s first foreign travel was to Italy this time around for the G7 summit, so when he goes to Russia, it will officially be his first bilateral visit.
This visit, which is a part of the yearly India-Russia summit, takes place nearly five years after PM Modi’s previous trip to Russia, which took place in 2019 when he went to Vladivostok for the Eastern Economic Forum. For two years running, the Covid-19 outbreak and the Eastern European conflict forced the annual gathering to be postponed. Prior to that, in 2021, President Putin paid an annual summit visit to India.
One item that is probably going to be covered during the visit would be a military logistics agreement between the two nations, even if the official confirmation of this impending visit is still pending and the agenda will stay unknown until then.
Russia recently declared that it is thinking of strengthening military ties with India by signing a military logistics deal. Long-pending between the two nations, the Reciprocal Exchange Logistics Agreement (RELOS) would allow mutual logistical support to each other’s armed forces during joint operations and long-distance missions.
In light of this, Indian warships and planes might take advantage of the Russian logistics network for refuelling, maintenance, and other such needs. This will allow the Indian military to conduct operations around the country in addition to lowering the cost of Indian missions.
India has similar agreements with several other nations, including France, Japan, Australia, and—most importantly—the United States under the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement.
Russia is currently finalizing the agreement, so during the PM’s next visit, some progress on this should be expected. When it is completed, it will provide India’s outreach initiatives outside of its immediate neighborhood a major advantage. Above all, it will facilitate India’s incursions into the Arctic Ocean region, which has become an important geopolitical arena in recent times.
Large amounts of undeveloped natural resources are found in the Arctic region, and these riches will become accessible as the ice melts as a result of climate change. Despite China’s early interest in this region—which even led it to declare itself a “near-Arctic state”—the map’s contours unfortunately don’t support their claims.
China is still attempting to establish a presence in order to gain a larger portion of the region’s mineral riches, priority access to shipping lanes, and a larger say in regional affairs.
India will be a noteworthy player in this situation because the RELOS agreement would allow it to access Russian supplies in the area, allowing it to advance quickly. Both nations will benefit since India is prepared to support Russian incursions in the Indian Ocean, which is also its own strategic backyard.
Sudan is an important nation in the IOR, and Russia has established a naval station there. The area is listed as a “key priority area” in Russia’s 2015 Maritime Doctrine. Being the dominant force in the oceans is something Russia, a major power, aspires to. India was specifically named as the key partner of choice in this marine doctrine.
It’s interesting to note that both this logistics deal and PM Modi’s decision to travel to Russia as his first foreign destination are laced with a bigger message for the world community. As China and Russia get closer, many Indian analysts are beginning to downplay Russia’s significance for India’s geopolitical objectives.
The West, which is concerned about Russia and China’s determination to seek a “no limits partnership,” likewise takes this stance. That being said, if one believes that the Beijing-Moscow bonhomie is unchangeable, then nothing can be further from the truth.
Many people closely observed Putin’s visit to North Korea and Vietnam last week as a direct challenge to the US alliance system in the region, but what some people have obviously failed to notice is that Putin also used the trip to assert Russia’s status as an independent power, not the “junior partner” of China that everyone seems to have claimed it is.
In addition to Hanoi’s counterclaims in the South China Sea, North Korea and Vietnam have a troubled history with China. Therefore, Putin’s outreach was undoubtedly an effort to convince Beijing that Moscow had alternatives as well. This becomes much more significant when one considers Russia’s resentment of Beijing’s quick advances into Central Asia, its strategic backyard.
The long-standing desire by Russia that India should maintain equilibrium in the region appears to be extended by PM Modi’s impending visit and the logistical deal. Recall that China’s incursions into the Arctic region are equally alarming for Russia. Both appear to have a similar grievance with NATO’s presence in the area.
Another example of Sino-Russian cooperation in the Northern Sea route, which provides an alternate path for connectivity between Europe and the Far East in addition to the Suez Canal route, is the Polar Silk Road project, which they signed in 2017. However, Russia hasn’t put all of its proverbial eggs in one basket even in this case. The signature of the RELOS indicates that it is actively courting India as well.
Both the accord and PM Modi’s visit are well-timed for India. India had overcome its non-alignment hangover to negotiate comparable deals with the US in Modi 1.0. India had begun to exhibit clear indications in Modi 2.0 of counterbalancing China on the inside as much as the outside. After a protracted attempt by the Western meddling apparatus to topple a powerful government in New Delhi, Modi 3.0 has emerged.
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Just a few days into office, the Khalistan issue is still very much in play, regularly causing annoyances in India’s dealings with the West. Modi 3.0’s challenge is to use whatever room it has to develop its own advantages without being overly reliant on any one player.
It will look fantastic to have Russia as the first stop on the tour and to sign a military agreement. In the global game of politics, after all, one can never have too much faith in people.
