There is now a void in the pursuit by Bangladesh of its predetermined external relations pattern due to Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. The struggle for dominance and internal unrest among several factions within Bangladesh is being expressed publicly.
Due to its noncompliance with the constitution, the caretaker administration that has been put in place lacks legitimacy both internationally and potentially even domestically. Bangladesh’s international transactions have slowed considerably as a result.
Respectfully speaking, the Advisor to the Cabinet is neither an experienced politician nor the representative of the people as they would be in a democracy. This will limit his capacity to consider the nation’s foreign policy from a long-term perspective. China and India have dominated Bangladesh’s foreign policy discourse since they are important partners for the majority of its development, trade, and commerce.
This is understandable given that they are sizable and stable economies. Bangladesh leads the world in textile production. It will be interesting to see where Bangladesh’s international and internal policies go in the future. So far, “All Quiet on the Eastern Seaboard” of India is certain to soon become history.
For many, the abrupt change of events in Bangladesh was undoubtedly unexpected. Hasina’s recommendation to leave the nation for her own safety, given by the Army, is a clear indication of their complicity in the regime change. The prime minister’s mansion was being ransacked, but neither the police nor the Army showed any signs of intervening until the student unrest turned violent. Members of the Awami League and the minority Hindu community were then targeted for execution. It is important to note, though, that some students were observed defending Hindu residences and temples.
Then, who was allowing them to get away with it is the question. In this way, a prime minister who brought Bangladesh out of dire poverty by guiding the nation toward remarkable development and commerce had to step down. Bangladesh’s GDP and per capita income rose to that point.
It is safe to say that the US is supporting the interim administration, which has the Army’s support, based on its current makeup. The US was not happy that their request to use St. Martin Island, a small island of about 3 sq km that is located 9 km south of Cox’s Bazar-Teknaf peninsula, the southernmost region of Bangladesh, was denied, according to the departing prime minister.
Despite being a small island, its strategic location at the mouth of the Naf River, approximately 8 kilometers west of the Myanmar shore, makes it important. There are about 3,700 people living on this island, most of whom work in rice farming and fishing. Rumors circulated that the administration of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party intended to sell this island to the United States. It should be mentioned that since a situation akin to a civil war erupted there, the US has also focused its attention on Myanmar. Due to several insurgent organizations attacking the army within the nation, the military government was forced to evacuate numerous locations.
The United States has increased its fiscal year appropriation to $167 million for Myanmar, of which $75 million is allocated for cross-border aid. It has provided $25 million to the People’s Defense Forces and ethnic armed organizations battling the military dictatorship for nonlethal support. Other countries saw it clearly as the US’s indulgence in the protracted conflict.
China has been assisting several armed factions near the Myanmar-China border in addition to the military administration as a way to hedge its risks. In an effort to appease them and stop them from entering Chinese territory, they have also started arming some of the rebel groups. Additionally, it created Kyaukphyu Port and assumed operational control as an oil discharge port in order to encircle India and provide alternative oil supply lines. Refineries in Yunnan province are reached by the pipelines.
China has grown extremely jaded with the Myanmar government following its decision to hand over construction and operational control of Sitwe port to an Indian corporation. Previously, China developed Myanmar’s Kyaukphu port, which has been utilized to offload crude oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran since 2017. Crude is transported into Yunan province’s refineries via a 770-kilometer pipeline. This port has the capacity to handle 8.8 million barrels of petroleum, and most of the time, the storage is 57% full. China’s reliance on the Malacca Straits is lessened because to this arrangement.
China was eager to obtain Sittwe’s operating rights, but Myanmar gave this contract to India’s IPGL in order to preserve harmony between the two friendly nations. Given the importance of the request to India’s Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project, it has been languishing for a while. This will function as a backup connection via Sittwe port between the northeastern states and India’s eastern coast. With this being a detour to the Siliguri corridor (Chicken’s Neck), India has a lot on the line. Depending on Bangladesh’s eventual governance setup, external actors actively engaged in the country’s internal affairs may use this path as a negotiating chip with India.
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China: Bangladesh has had influences from Beijing. The Armed Forces’ weapon platforms and infrastructure development are Chinese-made. comprises submarines, planes, and ships. Chinese workers stationed in Bangladesh are in charge of the training and maintenance of the submarines. The development of a power supply line under PGCB, the power supply system under DPDC, the development of a surface water supply project for Raj Shahi WASA, the single-point mooring in Chittagong, the elevated expressway connecting Dhaka and Asulia, the extension of the IT network, and the Padma bridge rail link are among the eleven projects that are prioritized.
Bangladesh’s biggest import partner, China, has also tripled during the past ten years. In contrast to its $680 million in export revenue, China imports goods valued about $19.35 billion. In Bangladesh, there are approximately 510 Chinese businesses active. Bangladesh is a participant in the Belt and Road Initiative initiative of China. The employees of these Chinese businesses employ about 550,000 people from Bangladesh. China is quite interested in Bangladesh overall. There were rumors that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) was considering using Bangladeshi ports on a regular basis, however this idea was rejected.
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Pakistan: The Advisor and government representatives have been meeting with the Pakistan High Commissioner ever since the interim administration was established in Bangladesh. It is commonly known that since Bangladesh’s independence, Pakistan’s intelligence service, ISI, has operated there. ISI and Jamat are closely related. The student uprising provided the ISI with a chance to ignite Jamat and feed the flames. Three distinct storylines emerged from this upheaval: one was anti-Indian (Sheikh Hasina was regarded as being connected to India), the other was anti-Awami League (the party members were seen as corrupt), and the third was anti-Hindu (the Awami League was perceived as being supportive of Hindus).
The prior prime minister had already addressed the reservation policies, and despite the High Court ruling that had reinstated the reservation for Mukti-Yoddha children and grandchildren being overturned, the pupils were still instigated. Here, the cooperation between Pakistan and the ISI in collusion with Jamat was evident. It is thought that former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has gone so far as to declare that Pakistan will make up for the wrongs committed in 1971. Security establishments in India must forcefully address Pakistan’s interest, which directly affects India’s internal security. Any negative effects on the connection initiatives between Bangladesh and West Bengal and Tripura, which connect India’s northeast, could pose a geopolitical threat.
US: Washington has long maintained a presence in the area. The US issued a warning against the use of any non-democratic techniques when Bangladesh announced elections. It all started with sponsoring the churches on the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh. Additionally, it called for the cancellation of several Awami League organizations’ visas, presumably as a result of US dissatisfaction with the Sheikh Hasina administration.
There are a number of the causes. Prior to her resignation, Sheikh Hasina had stated that a Christian state would be formed by dividing parts of Bangladesh, India’s northeast, and Myanmar. She also mentioned that Bangladesh had turned down the US request to lease St. Martin Island to the US Armed Forces. This was highlighted even more by Dhaka’s seeming tighter ties to China and the Chinese presence there. Bangladesh buys the majority of its weaponry, including submarines, from China. China has already established a significant presence in Myanmar, having secured a contract to manage an oil discharge port.
In addition to its presence in Myanmar and Bangladesh, China has access to the ports of Gwadar, Pakistan, and Djibouti, and it is comparatively close to obtaining these facilities in the Maldives and Morocco. Even though the US has had a significant presence for decades in the West and South West Indian Oceans and Gulfs, the Bay of Bengal was unmistakably perceived as being more China-dominated.
This may be China’s attempt to resolve the Malacca issue, which would give the US the upper hand in any future hostilities. Additionally, China and Thailand have discussed opening up the Bay of Bengal to air travel via flyovers and dry ports throughout Thailand. In actuality, China is obviously attempting to bolster its presence in the Bay of Bengal and deny the US any superiority, as evidenced by its attempts to outmaneuver the US in the South China Sea.
The US faced an obstacle in the form of the Sheikh Hasina government, which had repeatedly denied US demands for access. The only possibility that could provide the US a chance to stop “red-spread” into Eastern IOR, including the Bay of Bengal, was a change of leadership in Bangladesh, since China was already collaborating with the military government of Myanmar and some of the armed organizations.
The emergence of geopolitical competition between two major countries is what’s happening. The goal for two powerful economies should be to manage competition without going to war. If India’s relationship with Bangladesh and Myanmar does not stay stable, it will lose this game. A calm and tranquil eastern seaboard is essential to India’s Act East policy, which is important for the country’s northeastern development and connectivity to Southeast Asia. This has undoubtedly caused a stir. Free and fair elections in Bangladesh to install a constitutional administration that will allow India to start anew would be essential to stability.
The US-China rivalry is here to stay, and any discussion of politics, diplomacy, or the armed forces in India must take this fact into account. The Indian Ocean is moving from a zone of peace into a fight for domination between two superpowers, with one attempting to hold onto its position as the head of the current world order and the other closing the distance in an effort to overtake it.
China lags far behind the United States militarily. Will a misjudgment of one another’s military might result in bloody confrontation, or will both sides’ diplomatic and political efforts result in a more stable, peaceful, and prosperous world that might bring prosperity to this region of the world? Time will tell.
