China is struggling. In addition to failing to recognise the causes of its financial deterioration, it is failing to be “just” to its population. It is failing to comprehend the common populace’s mistrust of the government.
Failing to generate work of a high calibre. unable to maintain its reputation in the defence industry. failing to fulfil its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) commitments. Failing to be a reliable ally to some countries. failing to uphold its standing as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Not having trustworthy leaders who actually represent the Chinese people.
China is a declining power, which is a major cause for concern, as highlighted in an analysis by two eminent scholars, Hal Brands, a professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Micheal Beckley, an associate professor of political science at Tufts University, published in September 2021.
First, throughout the previous 150 years, peaking powers—great powers that experienced a severe, protracted downturn after expanding considerably faster than the global average—rarely disappear without a fight.
Instead, they adopt a brazen and hostile demeanour. A case in point is the undiplomatic actions and comments made on the bilateral relations in June 2023 by the Chinese Ambassador to South Korea, Xing Haiming.
Another example would be China’s intimidation of Australia in the middle of 2021 over Canberra’s desire for an investigation into the origins of the Coronavirus. During the two world wars of the 20th century, Germany and its allies served as prime instances of how this kind of crises may start to disrupt the global order.
Second, both domestic and foreign dissent is put down by the peaking powers. China has gained international recognition for its aggressive actions in this area. Not only is there no free press or freedom of speech for its citizens in China, but no one is even permitted to express an opinion on the Xi Jinping administration in the nations where China is working on building projects.
The world should pay attention to China’s repression of the “Me Too” movement of female activists, particularly the silence of Chinese tennis player Peng Shuai over her sexual harassment claim against former Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli, a retired Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official.
Third, by establishing exclusive zones of influence abroad, the peaking powers attempt to recapture economic momentum. China did launch the BRI initiatives internationally and gave loans and subsidies to numerous nations in Asia and Africa.
The distinction is that neither BRI nor China’s desire to assist any nation by rescheduling loans while they were experiencing financial difficulties, such as Sri Lanka, helped anyone other than China. Other nations have come to see why they should no longer be friends with China as a result of the debt trap these nations are currently in.
Fourth, they spend a lot of money on their militaries and employ violence to increase their power. Problematic for the entire world, the Indo-Pacific area in particular, is the extraordinary military growth of China, particularly the PLA (Navy). Regarding its territorial claims, China has been aggressive in the South China Sea and along the Indian frontiers.
Numerous South China Sea littoral regions have been unlawfully captured by China. China continues to occupy islands in the area and to harass fishermen from other coastal states in the nearby seas notwithstanding the International Court of Arbitration’s decision against China.
The PLA’s aggressive military mobilisation and manoeuvres in the Ladakh region have been the cause of the most recent military escalation with India, which has lasted for the past three years with no indications of abating.
Fifth, great-power tensions are frequently sparked by this behaviour. Chinese behaviour is the root of the difficulties that exist between the US and China, the South China Sea littorals and China, and the regional bloc QUAD and China.
Last but not least, these conflicts sometimes escalate into destructive wars. Everyone must continue to keep an eye out for whether this struggle for global supremacy will result in a conventional World War III, but in the meantime, war is already raging in the shape of cyber warfare, space armament, and information warfare.
These failed China-related characteristics have been made worse by its bad governance. Most of the time, Chinese authorities have shown little consideration for the average public. For instance, China’s unemployment rate has been rising rapidly, reaching 5.2 percent in June 2023.
China’s factory activity declined for the fourth consecutive month in July of this year, suggesting that its days as the preferred production location for international firms are likely numbered.
The Chinese government under Xi Jinping has been irresponsible and careless in its management of a number of issues, including marine pollution, debt traps for friendly countries, and the financial constriction of its populace.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration’s erratic behaviour is no longer accepted by the country’s populace as a whole. The start of a civil war or rebellion against the CCP’s rule is only a question of time. It might not be widespread at first, just in localised areas around the country.
India, China’s neighbour to the west, is one nation it should emulate and learn from. India has been on a continuous growth trajectory. It is Asia’s largest democracy and China’s opponent in the great power competition.
Along with equality for all Indians before the law and in governance, it has grown in a climate of free speech and a free press.
India has established itself as a reliable source of security for its coastal areas in the Indian Ocean region. This contrasts with China’s aggressive strategy for its littoral regions.
During the COVID-19 epidemic, India provided assistance to a number of nations, but China kept silent regarding the cause of the pandemic. India provided assistance to overextended countries like Sri Lanka without asking for anything in return.
On the other hand, China has consistently taken advantage of nations who are having financial difficulties by squeezing them deeper into the Chinese debt trap. The Gross Domestic Product of India has been increasing gradually but consistently. In the marine realm, India has been a supporter and adherent of a free, open, tranquil, inclusive, and rules-based order.
Perhaps it is time for China to acknowledge its impending decline. At this juncture in world history, it is anyone’s guess whether it will fall sharply from here or make the right friends to ensure that the future is secure.
