The Russian Empire and the combined strength of the British, French, and Ottoman Empires engaged in the first “Great Game” for control of Central Asia in the middle of the 1800s. The British were afraid that their biggest colony India will face an attack by Imperial Russia via Afghanistan. The Ottomans, though in decline, wanted to guard against Russian incursions into their Balkan possessions.
The Great Game began on January 12, 1830, when Britain’s Lord Ellenborough issued an edict establishing a new trade route from India to Bukhara, using Turkey, Persia, and Afghanistan as a buffer against Russia to prevent it from controlling any ports on the Persian Gulf, according to a report by Kallie Szczepanski.
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In the meantime, Russia desired to create a neutral area in Afghanistan so they could continue to use vital trade routes.
The Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907, which split Persia (Iran) into three zones—
a northern zone under Russian administration, a central zone with notional independence, and a southern zone under British authority—marked the official end of the Great Game. The Convention also designated Afghanistan as an official border between the two empires, extending from the eastern tip of Persia to Afghanistan.
Almost two centuries after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a new Great Game has begun, one with very different players, goals, and potential consequences.
The United States was inconsequential during the middle of the 1800s. As it was torn apart by the Civil War (1861–65) between the southern confederate states and the northern unionist states over the issue of slavery.
During the Opium Wars, Britain had humiliated China (1839-60). It was in a state of rest. India, a British colony, had both riches and spirit taken from it. Russia now lies weaker, its satellite states from the Soviet era assimilated into NATO. Together, they create a Western blade directed directly at Moscow. Ukraine is still a buffer state outside of NATO. Russia would be totally surrounded by the West led by the US if it were to join NATO in the future.
China, however, has become the main challenger to Western hegemony. The rivalry between China and the US is similar to that which existed between the British and Russian Empires in the middle of the 1800s.
Post-Imperial Britain lies weakened, much like post-Imperial Russia did. There isn’t the same third aspect in the US-China competition as there formerly was. Ottoman Empire has long since vanished. What role does India play in the US-China geopolitical rivalry?
India is considered too little to matter but too huge to ignore by China and the US, despite being the third largest economy in the world by 2028 and a vital military and geostrategic asset in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
Washington has three main grievances with India: One is the purchase of Russian crude oil at a reduced price, which has allowed Moscow to evade sanctions; two is the resistance to Western criticism about the supposed killings of extremists of Indian descent on Western territory; and three is the opening of Iran’s Chabahar port.
Iran is seen as a pariah state by the Biden administration, which is already irritated about the Hardeep Singh Nijjar “murder-for-hire” case.
Beijing and Washington are not fond of India’s unbridled rise.
China views India as a young nation best suited for a regional rather than a global role. India is seen by the US as a subaltern in the Indo-Pacific region. For the US, India is like a counterweight against China. It helps to keep China in check due to its position as an economic and military power in the region.
Russia and Britain, the two original participants in the Great Game, have chosen sides. Russia is a junior partner that is closely linked with China.
With its superior defense technologies and real-time intelligence sharing, Britain is America’s alter ego.
But neither Moscow nor London has the power to materially change how the US-China geopolitical rivalry plays out.
The Ottomans acted as the third side in what was effectively a binary conflict during the Great Game of the 19th century between the Russian and British Empires.
After 50 years, in 1918, the Ottoman Empire—which had sided with Germany—was destroyed and the Caliphate was abolished as a result of being trapped in a pincer between opposing European countries during the First World War.
India is a rising power in contrast to the Ottomans, who were in terminal decline at the beginning of the 20th century. As a colony of the British, it was dormant.
A stronger India can now act as the US and China’s pivotal point of balance. But to do that, it will need to adjust its approach.
China overtook the US as India’s top trading partner in 2023–2024.
A little bit more than India’s total trade with the US, at $118.4 billion, was traded with China. Washington has received a strong warning from this: don’t take India for granted. India will operate ports wherever it pleases (Iran), trade with China or anybody else it wants, and purchase crude from Russia or any other nation that offers the greatest price.
“Any entity, anyone considering business deals with Iran need to be aware of the potential risks that they are opening themselves to and the potential risk of sanctions,” White House spokesperson Vedant Patel warned just in time.
India has dismissed the suggestion of a threat.
Concurrently, India disregarded China’s worries and agreed to sell $375 million worth of BrahMos cruise missiles to Beijing’s arch rival, the Philippines.
In order for India to properly engage in the new Great Game, decades of inhibitions in its foreign policy must go.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has demonstrated strong independence both in words and deeds during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
To the dismay of the West, Jaishankar visited Moscow for five days in December 2023, during which he had meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the Russia-Ukraine war was still continuing.
Sarbananda Senowal, the Shipping Minister of India, has traveled to Iran in a prominent capacity to supervise the opening of Chabahar Port.
The new administration needs to present India as a global counterweight, loyal to no one but a staunch supporter of those who acknowledge its emergence as a sovereign nation with well-defined boundaries.
